U.S.-Iran War: Hidden Risks For Semiconductors

Jack Bowman9.24K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(9min)CommentsSummaryThe ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens both energy and critical helium supplies, impacting semiconductor manufacturing, especially for TSMC.TSMC and other chipmakers have stockpiles, but a prolonged disruption could compress sector multiples and trigger a sell-off before actual shortages hit.Speculating on helium producers is risky due to illiquidity and microcap status; there are no pure-play helium ETFs or indexes available.I view a semiconductor sector drop of 5–8% as a buying opportunity, given my bullish stance and expectation of eventual supply normalization. Anna-av/iStock via Getty Images It is now week three of the U.S.-Iran War, and the Strait of Hormuz is still functionally closed to shipping. While some ships are making it through, reportedly by turning off their AIS tracking systems (and so are notThis article was written byJack Bowman9.24K FollowersFollowWriter | Investment Advisor | Economics Wonk | Top 5% on TipRanks | Long Signal, Short Noise | Author of The Macro Obsession, a weekly newsletter on current events and trends in finance, tech, and the real economy. My work focuses on my quest to uncover narrative trends before mainstream financial media, a process I've been describing as the hunt for information alpha. It is chart-heavy, macro-oriented, and data-driven.I invest across securities and asset classes. My focus has largely been on ETF investing, and I am known as a macro analyst, though I do cover stocks that I am personally trading or considering for my portfolio. These are typically technology and next-gen energy stocks or large caps with a juicy story.“Successful investing requires holding uncomfortably idiosyncratic positions.” — Howard Marks, paraphrasing David Swensen “History does not repeat, it instructs.” — Timothy Snyder, On TyrannyAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.