Turning Point: The Next Phase For The 10-Year Bond Yield Is Crucial

Eugenio Catone6K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(8min)CommentsSummaryThis year is pivotal for US debt sustainability, with $10 trillion in marketable debt maturing and refinancing costs highly sensitive to interest rates.Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, have driven up oil prices and inflation expectations, pushing the US 10Y yield toward 4.25%.A prolonged Middle East conflict could trigger a breakout in the US 10Y yield above resistance, making 5% yields plausible and refinancing risks acute.I am avoiding long-term bonds due to stagflation risks and the potential for further yield surges, which threaten real returns even on AAA credit. niphon/iStock via Getty Images This Is A Crucial Year For US Debt Sustainability Over the next 12 months, approximately $10 trillion worth of U.S. publicly held marketable debt will be maturing, and there is no way to pay off thisThis article was written byEugenio Catone6K FollowersFollowPassionate about geopolitics and macroeconomics, I express my opinion through my articles and enjoy engaging with all of you. I also write about companies that catch my attention, particularly those in my portfolio. For me, Seeking Alpha is a way to expand and share my knowledge. Graduate in business economics, CFA Level 1 and popular investor on eToro.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.