TSMC: Bulletproof Your Portfolio Even Though Peace Should Prevail

Oliver Rodzianko6.33K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(8min)CommentsSummaryTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited faces significant geopolitical tail risks, especially related to Taiwan's status and potential disruptions to subsea cables and logistics.TSM's current valuation is high, with consensus EPS growth of +36% for FY26 and +23.5% for FY27, but growth is decelerating.I project a bull case 9% upside (April 2028 EPS $18.50, P/E 20) and a bear case 18.5% downside (P/E 15), supporting a Hold rating.I maintain a substantial cash position (30%+) to manage uncertainty, favoring portfolio resilience over chasing late-cycle alpha. imaginima/iStock via Getty Images It's that time in the evolution of mankind again where the governmental leaders are flaunting their guns and ships and trying to gamble their way to more and more market share on the global stage. ForThis article was written byOliver Rodzianko6.33K FollowersFollowOliver Rodzianko is the Director of Invictus Origin, managing a high-alpha portfolio strategy outperforming the Nasdaq-100 through rotation with disciplined cash deployment during market dislocations.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.