Trump's Delayed Ultimatum To Iran: A Trap For Dip Buyers

Deep Value Investing11.79K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(10min)CommentsSummaryI’ve seen this setup before (April 2-9, 2025), but this time I’m definitely not rushing to buy the dip.I believe the market is treating Trump’s five-day delay like another backoff trade, even though Iranian officials denied talks and Israeli strikes continued today.With energy infrastructure at the core of the conflict, I am increasingly concerned about higher for longer oil prices, which will pressure U.S. monetary policy later this year.With no confirmed signs of diplomatic talks between Iran and the U.S., aside from Trump's remarks this morning, I prefer to remain skeptical and stay on the sidelines.I still think that the second order effects of the conflict may last beyond the reopening of Hormuz. Overall, I still see the S&P 500 at 6,100 before mid-summer after a short relief rally. Getty Images I've seen this move before. This time, however, I don't see a happy ending like the one on April 9, 2025. As I'm writing, markets are treating President Trump's 5-day delay on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure as another familiar backoffThis article was written byDeep Value Investing11.79K FollowersFollowSmall deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well, you can land a Jumbo on the spread and still have clearance for take-off. From time to time, I buy shares, mostly to not be categorized as a degen by my fellow investor friends, therefore the 50%-50% allocation. My timeframe tends to be between 3-24 months.I like stocks that have experienced a recent sell-off due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at the new lower price. This is how I often screen through thousands of stocks, mainly in the US, although I may own shares in banana republics. I use fundamental analysis to check the health of companies that pass through my screening process, their leverage, and then compare their financial ratios with the sector, and industry median and average. I also do professional background checks of each insider who purchased shares after the recent sell-off. I use technical analysis to optimize the entry and exit points of my positions. I mainly use multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts. From time to time I draw trend lines, taken for granted, in multicolor patterns. Note: I tried to keep my introduction as real, and authentic as possible. I dislike empty suits, high-level BS, deep-level BS, unnecessary jargon, and self-indulgent, third-person written introductions with an air of superiority.Thanks for reading my introduction!Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.