Trump says tax refunds are 'substantially greater than ever before.' What filers can expect

In this articleIt's been nearly one month since tax season opened, and many filers expect bigger refunds due to changes enacted via President Donald Trump's "big beautiful bill." But it's still too early to tell how much bigger refunds could be amid limited IRS filing data."In some cases, estimates are that over 20% will be returned to the Taxpayer," he wrote.In a Truth Social post on Tuesday, Trump said tax refunds are "substantially greater than ever before." It's unclear which estimates Trump was referencing.

The White House did not respond to CNBC's request for clarification. Typically, filers see a refund when they overpay taxes throughout the year via paycheck withholdings or estimated payments. Filers generally have a balance due when they don't pay enough.Early on Feb. 13, Treasury Secretary and acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent told CNBC's "Squawk Box" the average tax refund was 22% higher so far this season. It wasn't clear how many days of returns Bessent's figure included or what comparison period he used.IRS filing season statistics released later on Feb. 13 showed the average refund was $2,290 as of Feb. 6, up about 11% from one year prior. The Treasury has not responded to CNBC's requests for comment about the discrepancy. However, "we're still very early in tax filing season," Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit think tank, told CNBC.The filing season opened Jan. 26, and the first batch of IRS data included returns through Feb. 6. Typically, the average refund size "pops" in late February once payments include the earned income tax credit or additional child tax credit, Lautz said. Currently, "it's way too early to tell if any data points are durable trends," he said. As the IRS shares more filing data, the average refund compared with 2025 could increase, according to a Feb. 18 note from Bank of America Securities.The company expects Trump's tax law changes could create "about $1,000 of stimulus per household, on average," during the 2026 tax filing season. About half of that change could come from the higher cap on the federal deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT, and the "no tax on overtime" deduction, analysts wrote. This refund estimate aligns with October research from investment bank Piper Sandler, which projected that Trump's "retroactive tax cuts could average about $1,000 per return, though it will be substantially more for some filers."In 2025, the average tax refund through Oct. 17 was $3,052, according to IRS data. However, individual refunds could vary significantly this season, depending on 2025 withholdings and which of Trump's new provisions impact that taxpayer's situation. Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you.Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inboxGet this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services.© 2026 Versant Media, LLC.

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