Trump Calls for Dow 100,000. Here's Why You Shouldn't Dismiss His Prediction.

By David Dierking – Feb 12, 2026 at 10:20AM ESTKey PointsPresident Trump made the bold claim on Truth Social that the Dow would double by the time he leaves office.While Dow 100,000 probably isn't in our immediate future, Trump has shown an ability to move the markets with what he says and does.Even if the market doesn't double in the next few years, his policy decisions could keep stocks moving higher.These 10 Stocks Could Mint the Next Wave of Millionaires ›DJINDICES: ^DJIDow Jones Industrial AverageToday's Changeangle-down(0.13%) $64.14Current Price$50185.54Price as of February 12, 2026 at 10:50 AM ETPresident Trump may not see the Dow double in the next three years, but his ability to move the markets with his comments and actions shouldn't be discounted.This past Sunday, President Donald Trump took to his Truth Social platform to make a rather bold prediction. After hitting 50,000 for the first time last week, he thinks the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.13%) will hit 100,000 by the end of his term.

Record Stock Market, and National Security, driven by our Great TARIFFS. I am predicting 100,000 on the DOW by the end of my Term. REMEMBER, TRUMP WAS RIGHT ABOUT EVERYTHING! I hope the United States Supreme Court is watching. Donald Trump, Truth Social On the surface, his comments could be taken as just more of his typical bluster. After all, following three consecutive years of roughly 13% returns for the index, calling for an average annual return of around 26% over the next three years seems awfully optimistic. But remember, this is a guy who has the ability to move markets with his comments and his policy decisions. Image source: Getty Images. A few recent examples of Trump moving the market Liberation Day tariffs: One of the first things Trump did at the beginning of his second term was announce his intention to apply reciprocal tariffs on trade partners. Realizing the impact of a protracted trade war, the Dow fell about 16%, but the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.28%) and the Nasdaq-100 fell more. Liberation Day trade deals: After Liberation Day, Trump quickly announced that a number of countries had come to him proposing new trade deals and signaled a willingness to roll back some of the tariffs as they negotiated. Stocks quickly began rallying, and the Dow was at a new high a few months later. No military action on Greenland: Trump's desire to take control of Greenland raised geopolitical tensions. It didn't trigger a correction-level pullback, but it damaged short-term sentiment. After Trump said he wouldn't take aggressive action at the World Economic Forum in Davos, stocks rose around 1%. American Eagle ad controversy: The polarizing Sydney Sweeney ad campaign drew a lot of public attention, but also that of Trump. After he publicly endorsed the campaign on social media, the stock rose by around 24% on August 4th. Many of the Trump-triggered market moves, however, are more short-term in nature and surround specific events or issues. It'll likely take much more to move the financial markets significantly higher over a multiyear period. The best precedent for this might be the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act of 2017. That included cuts to corporate and individual tax rates, a higher standard deduction, and a higher child tax credit. While stocks chopped sideways after it went into effect, the optimism around it helped push the Dow sharply higher in 2017. Potential catalysts that Trump might use this time around Lower interest rates: The Federal Reserve, as it stands, seems hesitant to push rates much lower now, but Trump is very interested in lowering rates significantly. Tariff stimulus checks: These have been floated for a while, and it's unclear if they'll ever come to fruition. Stimulus checks during the COVID pandemic were one of the factors that helped the S&P 500 rebound higher. Mortgage-backed securities purchases: The idea of loading up the Fed's balance sheet again with asset purchases isn't ideal, but it's another form of added liquidity that has traditionally helped with asset prices. It seems unlikely that Trump will be able to push the Dow to 100,000 in the next three years, but the idea of him taking measures that would support higher stock prices shouldn't be discounted. Trump has a way of moving the markets in his favor.Read NextFeb 11, 2026 •By Bram BerkowitzHere's Why January's Job Report is Lifting the Stock Market TodayFeb 10, 2026 •By Josh Kohn-LindquistStock Market Today, Feb. 10: Markets Slide Lower as December Retail Figures UnderwhelmFeb 10, 2026 •By Sean WilliamsHere's When the Dow Jones Industrial Average Will Reach 100,000, Based on What History Has to SayFeb 9, 2026 •By Howard SmithStock Market Today, Feb. 9: Oracle Climbs on AI Optimism Despite Software Sector WeaknessFeb 9, 2026 •By Keith SpeightsThe Dow Hit 50,000. Here's What History Says Happens Next.Feb 6, 2026 •By Howard SmithStock Market Today, Feb. 6: Nvidia Leads Rally After AI Hardware ReboundsStocks MentionedDow Jones Industrial AverageDJINDICES: ^DJI$50185.54 (+0.13%) $+64.14*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.