Treasury yields fall as traders rethink Fed rate hikes after Powell comments

In this articleU.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Tuesday morning, as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates and continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. At 4:37 a.m. the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 2 basis points lower at 4.321%. Yields on 2-year and 30-year Treasurys fell by 1 basis point and 2 basis points, respectively. One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.The U.S.-Iran war continues to hold the attention of investors across the globe. Elevated oil prices are fueling both inflation concerns and recessionary fears, thereby clouding the outlook for monetary policy trajectories. Money markets are now overwhelmingly pricing in zero rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for the rest of the year, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Last week, futures traders briefly pushed the probability of a rate increase by the end of 2026 to 52%.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that he sees inflation expectations as grounded despite rising energy prices so the central bank doesn't need to respond with higher interest rates.The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday evening that Trump told aides he was willing to end U.S. military hostilities against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. The waterway, a critical shipping route, has essentially been closed for the duration of the conflict, causing a supply glut in the oil market that has sent prices skyrocketing. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Al Jazeera in an interview published Monday that Washington's objectives in Iran would take "weeks, not months" to achieve.Investors will also be monitoring February JOLTs jobs data on Tuesday, with the print due out at 10 a.m. ET.Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you.Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inboxGet this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services.© 2026 Versant Media, LLC.

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