Transmission Channels Of The War On Iran To The Brazilian Economy

Otaviano Canuto522 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(10min)CommentsSummaryThe ongoing Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockade have sharply disrupted global energy and fertilizer flows, with Brazil facing acute exposure.Brazil benefits from higher oil prices as a net exporter, but inflation and logistics costs are rising, pressuring domestic fuel and transport sectors.Critical fertilizer imports—especially urea and phosphates—are blocked, risking significant shortages and price spikes for Brazil's dominant agribusiness by the 2026/2027 crop season.Monetary tightening has begun, with the Central Bank slowing rate cuts and financial conditions deteriorating amid global market volatility. golden_SUN/iStock via Getty Images We are now in the fifth week since the U.S. airstrike that killed top leaders of the Iranian regime, initiating a war involving the United States and Israel against the country. More than a month of mutual bombardmentsThis article was written byOtaviano Canuto522 FollowersFollowOtaviano Canuto, based in Washington, D.C area, is a senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, professor at George Washington University, principal of the Center for Macroeconomics and Development and a non-resident senior fellow at Brookings Institution. He is a former vice-president and a former executive director at the World Bank, a former executive director at the International Monetary Fund and a former vice-president at the Inter-American Development Bank. He is also a former deputy minister for international affairs at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance and a former professor of economics at University of São Paulo and University of Campinas, Brazil.He has authored and co-edited 8 books and over 160 book chapters and academic articles, and is a frequent contributor to numerous blogs and periodicals.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.