Three ETFs that will be impacted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Should you buy?

By Reuben Gregg Brewer – Apr 16, 2026 at 10:15PM ESTKey PointsVanguard Energy ETF will benefit, at least temporarily, from high oil prices.Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF is likely to suffer in the near term, but it is filled with reliable businesses.If there's a recession, Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF would likely be hit particularly hard.Investors are always looking for an edge when a large global event is expected to impact financial markets. In some cases, that means buying assets to make a profit. In others, it can mean selling assets to stave off losses. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has some clear winners, but there are also longer-term implications investors need to consider. Here are three Vanguard exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that could be affected materially by the Middle East turmoil. Vanguard Energy ETF: High Oil Prices If there's an obvious winner from the impact of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, it's oil and natural gas producers. Such companies are what populate Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE +1.57%). The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.09%, a yield of roughly 2.2%, and $13 billion in assets. Image source: Getty Images. The key, however, is that its portfolio of roughly 100 holdings provides diversified exposure to the energy sector. About 39% of assets are in integrated energy companies, with nearly 23% in oil and gas exploration businesses. The rest is spread around the energy sector, but given the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even companies in the refining arena are seeing strong results despite the high cost of oil. Indeed, the shutdown has limited the supply of both oil and the products it is turned into. The problem is that Vanguard Energy ETF has already moved materially higher so far in 2026. It is a solid choice if you are looking for a diversified energy play, but more conservative investors should probably tread with caution. Oil prices are volatile and have always fallen after steep increases, suggesting there could be material downside risk when the conflict eventually ends. ExpandNYSEMKT: VDEVanguard World Fund - Vanguard Energy ETFToday's Change(1.57%) $2.48Current Price$160.93Key Data PointsDay's Range$158.56 - $161.5652wk Range$109.21 - $179.34Volume889K Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF: Margins could be a problem The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced fertilizer availability. High oil prices, meanwhile, increase shipping and production costs. These will be material issues for companies that make food products and other consumer staple items. And that spells trouble for Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC +0.33%). The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.09%, a yield of 2.1%, and roughly $9 billion in assets. In an environment where consumers are already worried about rising costs, the roughly 100 consumer staples companies that populate this ETF could see margins contract as their costs rise. That would lead to weak earnings, which investors already appear to be preparing for, since the ETF has been trending lower since March. ExpandNYSEMKT: VDCVanguard World Fund - Vanguard Consumer Staples ETFToday's Change(0.33%) $0.73Current Price$223.71Key Data PointsDay's Range$222.90 - $225.0052wk Range$205.45 - $244.33Volume82K That said, consumer staples makers sell products, like food and toothpaste, that consumers buy in both good times and bad.

If Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF were to fall materially, it would probably be worth adding to your portfolio as a long-term holding.

Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF: A recession would be very bad news The last ETF up is Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR 0.25%). It is likely to pose the most risk because the portfolio is filled with businesses that are economically sensitive, like auto makers, retailers, and restaurants. If the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushes the global economy into a recession, Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF will likely fall even further than it has so far in 2026. ExpandNYSEMKT: VCRVanguard World Fund - Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETFToday's Change(-0.25%) $-0.96Current Price$389.18Key Data PointsDay's Range$386.96 - $391.5152wk Range$294.01 - $414.28Volume52K It has an expense ratio of 0.09%, a yield of 0.8%, and assets of around $6 billion. Like the other Vanguard ETFs above, it holds roughly 100 stocks. Given the cyclical nature of many of the stocks it owns, most investors should probably tread with caution here. Notably, the risk of a recession won't go away just because the conflict ends, given the lingering impact the event will have on global energy markets. The best bet is likely to be consumer staples When you step back, high oil prices are likely already reflected in the prices of energy stocks.

So Vanguard Energy ETF may have more downside risk than upside opportunity. A recession would be very bad for consumer discretionary businesses, so buying Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF probably isn't worth it either.

Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF, meanwhile, is filled with businesses that produce everyday needs. That makes it the most attractive option for most investors, though it might be best to watch for a more material downturn in the ETF before stepping aboard.Read NextApr 13, 2026 •By David DierkingThe Best Vanguard ETF to Invest $1,000 in This AprilApr 10, 2026 •By Trevor JennewineThis Vanguard Index Fund Is Absolutely Crushing the S&P 500 This YearApr 8, 2026 •By Matthew BenjaminFriday's Inflation Report Could Move Markets. Here's How to Hedge It.Apr 2, 2026 •By Matt DiLalloBest Oil ETFs for 2026 and How to InvestApr 1, 2026 •By Reuben Gregg BrewerShould You Buy Vanguard Energy ETF or Chevron?Mar 26, 2026 •By Matt DiLalloWhat Is the Best Vanguard ETF to Own During an Oil Shock?About the AuthorReuben Gregg Brewer is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering energy, utilities, REITs, and consumer staples. He is the former director of research at Value Line Publishing, where he rose from mutual fund analyst to equity analyst before leading all research operations. Reuben holds a bachelor’s degree in psychology from SUNY Purchase, a master’s in social work from Columbia University, and an MBA from Regis University. He has been featured as a financial expert on CNBC and in the Financial Times, Barron’s, and InvestmentNews.TMFReubenGBrewerStocks MentionedVanguard World Fund - Vanguard Energy ETFNYSEMKT: VDE$160.93(+1.57%)+$2.48Vanguard World Fund - Vanguard Consumer Staples ETFNYSEMKT: VDC$223.71(+0.33%)+$0.73Vanguard World Fund - Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETFNYSEMKT: VCR$389.18(-0.25%)-$0.96*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.