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This AI Stock Could Be a Key Winner With Another Decade of Growth

newsfeedback@fool.com (Keith Noonan)
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Amazon stock plunged after its Q4 2025 earnings revealed a $200 billion capex plan for 2026, prioritizing AI infrastructure over short-term profits despite beating revenue expectations at $213.4 billion. AWS remains the cloud leader with 24% year-over-year growth and 35% operating margins, positioning Amazon to dominate AI workloads as demand for scalable infrastructure accelerates through the decade. E-commerce automation and AI integration are in early stages, with robotics investments poised to expand margins long-term—even modest improvements could significantly boost profitability given Amazon’s massive sales volume. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 (32% vs. 77% over five years), but analysts argue AI-driven growth in cloud and logistics justifies the premium spend despite near-term earnings pressure. Competition in AI is fierce, but Amazon’s existing cloud dominance, e-commerce scale, and aggressive investment strategy could yield outsized returns by 2036, outweighing current valuation concerns.
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By Keith Noonan – Mar 5, 2026 at 12:00AM ESTKey PointsAmazon got hit with a big sell-off following its latest quarterly report, and the stock has significantly underperformed the S&P 500 in recent years.Amazon's massive infrastructure investments could help it be a huge AI winner over the next decade.Amazon (AMZN +3.97%) stock saw a big valuation contraction following the publication of the company's fourth-quarter results. Sales for the period actually came in ahead of expectations, but earnings missed the market's forecast. The business posted non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings of $1.95 per share on sales of $213.4 billion, while the average analyst estimate had modeled for per-share earnings of $1.97 on sales of $211.3 billion. Despite better-than-anticipated sales performance last quarter, investors bristled at higher-than-anticipated costs and the tech giant's guidance for massive capital expenditures (capex) this year. In order to continue building out its AI infrastructure and pursue other growth bets, Amazon anticipates spending roughly $200 billion this year. While the company's massive capital expenditure outlays will put a substantial damper on the company's near-term earnings, there are good reasons to continue liking Amazon as an artificial intelligence (AI) stock for the long term. Image source: Getty Images. Leadership in the cloud and e-commerce point to big AI opportunities Amazon Web Services (AWS) continues to lead the cloud infrastructure market, and last quarter's sales growth of roughly 24% for the segment topped Wall Street's expectations. AWS should continue to enjoy sales tailwinds as more AI applications are developed, launched, and scaled across the platform, and the segment's fantastic operating margin (35% last quarter) should ensure that the business continues to be a profit-generating machine. On the e-commerce side of things, Amazon remains in very early innings when it comes to leveraging the benefits of AI and automation, and massive investments in AI and robotics should help the unit significantly expand margins over the long term. With its huge sales base, even moderate margin improvements for the online-retail business could wind up making a huge difference for the bottom line. ExpandNASDAQ: AMZNAmazonToday's Change(3.97%) $8.29Current Price$217.02Key Data PointsMarket Cap$2.3TDay's Range$210.15 - $217.5352wk Range$161.38 - $258.60Volume3.6MAvg Vol48MGross Margin50.29% While the S&P 500's level has risen roughly 77% over the last five years, Amazon stock is up just 32% across the stretch. Pressures connected to pandemic-related issues, inflation, and rising costs have dampened the stock's performance, but there are good reasons to believe that its long-term AI opportunities are currently being discounted by the market. As the company's huge capex forecast for this year makes clear, Amazon is not resting on its laurels. Big investment pushes are going to depress earnings this year, and it's reasonable to expect that the company will have another huge round of capital expenditures next year as well. While intense competition and spending among tech giants in order to avoid getting left behind in the AI race comes with substantial risks, Amazon is betting on categories with the potential to deliver huge payoffs over the long haul. Crucially, the company already has strong positioning in these categories and the setups to facilitate strong returns on its large investments. The company's existing foundations and strengths in cloud infrastructure, e-commerce, and adjacent spaces position the business to be a big winner over the next decade and beyond.Read NextMar 4, 2026 •By Daniel SparksNvidia vs. Amazon: Which AI Stock Is a Better Buy Now?Mar 4, 2026 •By Geoffrey SeilerPrediction: 2 Stocks That'll Be Worth More Than Microsoft 10 Years From NowMar 2, 2026 •By Jeremy BowmanWhy Amazon Stock Lost 12% in FebruaryMar 2, 2026 •By Leo SunIs Amazon (AMZN) a Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2026?Mar 1, 2026 •By Brett Schafer2 Top Artificial Intelligence Stocks to Buy in MarchFeb 28, 2026 •By Keithen DruryWant to Invest in AI Like a Billionaire? Here's How One Fund Manager Is Doing It.About the AuthorKeith Noonan is a contributing writer at The Motley Fool covering technology, consumer goods, and other sectors. He holds a bachelor’s degree in English from Boston College.TMFNoonsStocks MentionedAmazonNASDAQ: AMZN$216.82(+3.88%)+$8.09*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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