These Flawed Arguments Can Be Especially Misguiding In 2026

Sensor UnlimitedInvesting GroupFollow5ShareSavePlay(8min)CommentsSummaryPopular charts based on rolling SP500 returns are fundamentally flawed due to the use of highly overlapping and non-independent samples.These flaws have provided very misleading signals in recent years and can be especially relevant for the next ~1–2 years.Latest data shows a 4.9% productivity surge (and falling unit labor costs), one of the strongest productivity gains in decades.It’s particularly timely to challenge the assumption of mean reversion given the many technological innovations undergoing and accelerating.This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Envision Early Retirement. Learn More » Orla/iStock via Getty Images These Charts Are Popular But Flawed With all equity indices (ranging from large-cap, such as DJI, SP500, and NASDAQ, to small-cap RTY) hovering around record levels in 2026, these following charts (or some other variationsThis article was written bySensor Unlimited10.68K FollowersFollowSensor Unlimited is an economist by training with a PhD, with a focus on financial economics. She is a quantitative modeler and for the past decade she has been covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and the banking industry. She writes about asset allocation and ETFs, particularly those related to the overall market, bonds, banking and financial sectors, and housing markets. Sensor Unlimited contributes to the investing group Envision Early Retirement which is led by Sensor Unlimited. They offer proven solutions to generate both high income and high growth with isolated risks through dynamic asset allocation. Features include: two model portfolios - one for short-term survival/withdrawal and one for aggressive long-term growth, direct access via chat to discuss ideas, monthly updates on all holdings, tax discussions, and ticker critiques by request. Learn More.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.