Tesla: Time To Ditch The 'Someday Soon' Premium

David B. McMillan174 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(21min)Comment(1)SummaryTesla, Inc. is rated a Strong Sell due to an unjustifiable $1.5T valuation, even under highly optimistic scenarios.TSLA's current price far exceeds a calculated fair value of $301 per share, assuming flawless execution through 2030.Key growth drivers—robotaxis and Optimus robots—face significant execution, adoption, and competitive risks, with revenue projections appearing highly ambitious.Energy storage and services offer real growth, but not enough to offset execution risks and extreme valuation premiums. VV Shots/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Introduction Is there a company and stock more polarizing than Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)? The controversial nature of the company is primarily attributable to its CEO, Elon Musk. Bulls see a company led by oneThis article was written byDavid B. McMillan174 FollowersFollowMy name is David B McMillan and I am an investor interested in fundamental valuation. My philosophy is fundamental investing - I seek to identify underpriced securities relative to their potential future cash flows. I also use tactical allocation, investing more aggressively when equity prices are lower, and more conservatively when they are higher. I have a BS in Physics and BA in Philosophy from UCSB, and am currently a CFA Level 2 candidate. I am mostly interested in covering stocks in the aerospace and defense sector, but I am also interested in retail and tech companies. I have a 12 year investing track record, with documented investments in AI, tech, and crypto themes before they were widely understood - NVDA in 2017, 8000 percent gain; PLTR at IPO, 1870 percent gain; AMD in 2017, 3700 percent gain; TSLA in 2016, 3400 percent gain. Had all of Mag 7 in my portfolio by 2018, before those stocks were called the Mag 7. My current demo portfolio, started in April 2025 with about $8k of my my own capital, is so far achieving a Sharpe ratio of 3.49 compared to IVV of 2.42 in the same time period. My average time-weighted return is 0.30 percent per day vs IVV at 0.14 percent per day.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TSLA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I should disclose to readers that I have been a long-term shareholder of TSLA. Despite believing the company is overvalued right now, I don't have any plans to sell my shares. This piece is not investment advice - "strong sell" just means that my analysis shows a mismatch between the fair value based on my valuation model and the current market price of the stock.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.