Tesla Has a Robotaxi Problem, and That's Bad News for Its Stock

By Geoffrey Seiler – Feb 23, 2026 at 7:05PM ESTKey PointsTesla's robotaxis are seeing a much higher crash rate than human drivers.The company is running into licensing and marketing issues in California.The stock's valuation is sky-high. These 10 Stocks Could Mint the Next Wave of Millionaires ›NASDAQ: TSLATeslaMarket Cap$1.5TToday's Changeangle-down(-2.91%) $11.99Current Price$399.83Price as of February 23, 2026 at 4:00 PM ETInvestors have been betting big on Tesla's robotaxi ambitions.While Tesla (TSLA 2.91%) recently confirmed it will begin production of its Cybercab in June, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the company has a robotaxi problem. The company reported five more crashes involving its robotaxi fleet in Austin, Texas, bringing the total to 14 since its launch last June. While most of the crashes have been minor fender benders at low speeds, one did result in hospitalization. While only 14 crashes doesn't seem like a lot, according to reports, that equals about one crash every 57,000 miles. By comparison, according to Tesla's own data, American drivers are involved in a collision every 229,000 miles, while according to data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, police report a collision every 500,000 miles. So Tesla's robotaxis are involved in a crash at a rate of four to eight times more often than human drivers -- that's not good. Notably, all these crashes also involved a human driver serving as a safety monitor in the front seat. Image source: Getty Images. Meanwhile, the company continues to struggle with licensing and marketing issues in California. In a filing with the California Public Utilities Commission, Tesla noted that its vehicles in the state have a safety driver in the vehicle and also use remote assistant operators. Notably, this is why Tesla was able to navigate its small robotaxi fleet in San Francisco during a blackout while Waymo struggled. It wasn't because of some technological advantage; it was actually because of its use of humans, both in the car and helping remotely. Alphabet's Waymo also has remote assistance operators for edge cases, but with a much larger fleet, its operators were overwhelmed. This all came about because the company is fighting with Waymo in California. It has been arguing that its "robotaxi" operations in the state should be outside of autonomous driving rules, essentially admitting its vehicles aren't autonomous vehicles under California law. In the same breath, though, the company is fighting a proposal from Waymo that Tesla can't use the words "driverless," "self-driving," or "robotaxi" in its marketing in the state. Tesla already lost a ruling in December that its use of the terms "autopilot" and "full self-driving" broke state false-advertising rules. ExpandNASDAQ: TSLATeslaToday's Change(-2.91%) $-11.99Current Price$399.83Key Data PointsMarket Cap$1.5TDay's Range$394.04 - $407.7052wk Range$214.25 - $498.83Volume70MAvg Vol67MGross Margin18.03% Trouble brewing for Tesla's stock With Tesla's core electric vehicle (EV) business struggling and the stock trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 199 times analyst estimates for 2026, a lot of investors' hopes and dreams are pinned on the company's robotaxi and robotic ambitions. While it appears the company can build cheap Cybercabs, what hasn't been proven is that it has a safe, autonomous driving system. Meanwhile, all of CEO Elon Musk's earlier robotaxi predictions have failed to come to fruition. According to publication Electrek, Tesla only has about 42 robotaxis operating in Austin, with fewer than 20% available during operating hours. That's a far cry from the 500 he promised in Austin by the end of 2025. Tesla also hasn't come close to expanding to the eight to 10 cities that it projected to be in by the end of 2025. At some point, Tesla actually has to deliver with robotaxis. If it doesn't, its stock is in danger of collapsing, given its valuation and weak core business, which saw sales drop last year and operating margins contract.Read NextFeb 21, 2026 •By Adam SpataccoOne Analyst Thinks Tesla's Robotaxi Revenue Could Soar to $250 Billion by 2035.

But Here Are 3 Things Investors Need to Know.Feb 19, 2026 •By Rick MunarrizWhere Will Tesla Be in 1 Year?Feb 10, 2026 •By Bram BerkowitzCEO Elon Musk Just Gave a Mouth-Watering Update on Tesla's Robotaxi Fleet.

Should You Buy In or Be a Skeptic?Feb 5, 2026 •By Bram BerkowitzOne Analyst Thinks Tesla's Robotaxi Revenue Could Soar to $250 Billion by 2035, But Here Are 2 Things Investors Need to KnowFeb 2, 2026 •By Geoffrey SeilerShould Investors Buy Tesla Stock After Upbeat Outlook on Robotaxis and Robots?Jan 18, 2026 •By Bram BerkowitzShould You Buy Tesla Stock Before Jan. 28?About the AuthorGeoffrey Seiler is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering technology, consumer goods, healthcare, energy, and materials stocks. Prior to The Motley Fool, Geoffrey was a senior equity analyst at Raging Capital Management, a $600 million long-short hedge fund. He holds a bachelor’s degree in history from Haverford College.TMFFindProfitStocks MentionedTeslaNASDAQ: TSLA$399.83 (2.91%) $11.99AlphabetNASDAQ: GOOGL$311.16 (1.21%) $3.82AlphabetNASDAQ: GOOG$311.69 (1.02%) $3.21*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.