The Supreme Court May Have Just Prevented A Recession

Daniel JonesInvesting Group LeaderFollow5ShareSavePlay(16min)CommentsSummaryThe Supreme Court ruled tariffs under IEEPA unconstitutional, but new tariffs are being imposed under alternative statutes, maintaining economic headwinds.Broad-based tariffs act as a regressive tax, with importers absorbing up to 94% of costs, and supply chains shifting away from China toward Mexico and Vietnam.Current and potential future tariffs risk a permanent 0.2% GDP drag and add roughly $400 in annual costs per US household, compounding existing economic fragility.With job growth slowing and job openings at multi-year lows, I continue to view a US recession as a high-probability event absent a major policy shift.Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Crude Value Insights get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More » Getty Images February 20th was a really fascinating day for market participants. For months now, it had been anticipated that the US Supreme Court would eventually rule on the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act). AndThis article was written byDaniel Jones36.58K FollowersFollowDaniel is an avid and active professional investor. He runs Crude Value Insights, a value-oriented newsletter aimed at analyzing the cash flows and assessing the value of companies in the oil and gas space. His primary focus is on finding businesses that are trading at a significant discount to their intrinsic value by employing a combination of Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy and a contrarian approach to the market and the securities therein. Learn more.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.