The stock-market correction isn’t over yet. Here’s why the Iran cease-fire is actually a bad omen.

Contrarian analysts warn the U.S. stock-market correction will deepen, citing insufficient pessimism among investors despite the Iran conflict’s volatility. Short-term market timers remained bullish throughout the Iran war (Feb. 28 start) and even after a two-week cease-fire, defying typical contrarian buy signals. Historical trends suggest May begins the weakest six-month period for markets, compounding risks amid geopolitical uncertainty and overoptimistic sentiment. The cease-fire’s perceived stability may be misleading, as sustained bullishness often precedes sharper declines, according to contrarian indicators. Analyst Mark Hulbert highlights that without broader pessimism, a true market bottom is unlikely, signaling further downside ahead.