Is the Stock Market About to Crash? Here's What 100 Years of History Says

By Adria Cimino – Mar 29, 2026 at 4:10AM ESTKey PointsThe S&P 500 climbed in recent years, but the index has swung from gains to losses over the past several weeks.Geopolitical and economic concerns have weighed on appetite for growth stocks.The S&P 500 soared over the past three years, powering through a bull market, but the momentum has shifted in recent months. Concerns about the war in Iran, the broader economy, and the pace of AI spending have weighed on investors' minds. And as a result, the major benchmark has switched directions time after time, prompting investors to wonder about its next move. And given the recent headwinds, the big question has been the following: Is the stock market about to crash? Let's look to 100 years of history for some clues. Image source: Getty Images. Investors are cautious First, as mentioned, we've witnessed a clear change in the overall investing environment in recent weeks. Investors no longer are rushing into AI stocks and other growth players, and instead, they've become more cautious -- and the market has swung from gains to losses according to the news of the day. Intensifying turmoil in Iran has sparked losses, while hope for an end to the war has spurred gains, for example. All of this has created volatility, with many fluctuations in the index in recent weeks. ExpandSNPINDEX: ^GSPCS&P 500 IndexToday's Change(-1.67%) $-108.31Current Price$6368.85Key Data PointsDay's Range$6356.08 - $6453.8952wk Range$4835.04 - $7002.28Volume3.1B So it's not surprising that investors are wondering whether, considering the turmoil, the market may be about to crash. First, we'll look at an indicator that offers us more than 100 years of history. I'm talking about the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE index, an inflation-adjusted measure of stock prices in relation to earnings per share. That index has reached a level only reached once before, indicating that stocks are particularly expensive today. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts The S&P 500's performance A look at the S&P 500's performance following peaks in the Shiller CAPE index shows that the benchmark generally declines after stocks reach high levels. S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts Meanwhile, oil prices, which have spiked recently, have also been associated with stock market declines, as the chart below illustrates. ^SPX data by YCharts So, the evidence suggests that the stock market may head lower, though this doesn't necessarily mean it will crash. The S&P 500 might slip in the near-term, but declines may be moderate. And even if the market does eventually crash, history shows that such difficult times are temporary and that the index has always recovered and gained in the months and years that follow. All of this means that now, while stocks are down, is an excellent time to go bargain hunting and look for opportunities to get in on quality companies. Whether the market crashes or not, those who invest wisely today could score a win a few years down the road.Read NextMar 29, 2026 •By Sean WilliamsIf You Think President Donald Trump and the Fed Are Feuding Now, Wait Until the Effects of the Iran War Hit the Inflation ReportMar 28, 2026 •By Johnny RiceStock Market Crash in 2026? The S&P 500 Sounds an Alarm as Recession Odds Just Hit Their Highest Level in Years. Here's What History Says Happens Next.Mar 28, 2026 •By Adam LevyShould the Current Stock Market Valuation Concern Investors? Here's What Billionaire Bill Ackman Thinks.Mar 28, 2026 •By Sean WilliamsDid Fed Chair Jerome Powell Throw President Donald Trump Under the Bus Concerning Inflation for a Second Straight FOMC Meeting?Mar 28, 2026 •By Katie BrockmanShould You Sell Your Stocks Right Now? History Offers a Crystal-Clear Answer.Mar 28, 2026 •By Sean WilliamsLook Beyond Skyrocketing Gas Prices! If a Stock Market Crash Takes Shape Under President Donald Trump, the Fed Is Likely to Be the Catalyst.About the AuthorAdria Cimino is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering healthcare, technology, and consumer goods sectors. Prior to The Motley Fool, Adria covered the European stock market and U.S. stocks pre-market trading for Bloomberg News, Bloomberg TV, and Bloomberg Radio for more than a decade. Earlier in her career, she wrote about biotech, medtech, and technology companies in Boston for Mass High Tech, an American City Business Journals publication. She holds a bachelor’s degree in mass communications from the University of South Florida.TMFAdriaCiminoX@adria_in_parisStocks MentionedS&P 500 IndexSNPINDEX: ^GSPC$6,368.85(-1.67%)-$108.31*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.