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SRT Sales Cost Likely to Rise as War Fuels Economic Uncertainty

Esteban Duarte
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Banks face rising costs for significant risk transfers (SRTs) as geopolitical tensions—particularly potential US-Iran conflict—heighten economic uncertainty, per a Bloomberg Intelligence survey released March 2026. European banks (excluding UK) anticipate SRT issuance costs climbing to 14% of capital relief by 2027, up from 11% in 2025, reflecting investor demands for higher compensation amid instability. US banks project similar trends, with SRT costs expected to reach 9% of capital relief by 2027, compared to 6% in 2025, as risk aversion grows among traders and investors. The survey captures sentiment as traders assess escalating Middle East tensions, linking military risks directly to financial market strain and increased operational expenses for banks. Investor caution is driving the cost surge, with capital relief transactions becoming pricier as institutions prioritize risk mitigation amid volatile global conditions.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000War With Iran:Banks are likely to face higher costs in issuing significant risk transfers as investors become more demanding in the face of growing economic uncertainty, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence survey conducted when traders were already assessing the prospect of a US military intervention in Iran.Banks in Europe excluding the UK expect the cost to issue SRTs will rise to 14% of the capital relief benefit in 2027 from 11% in 2025, according to the survey of issuers and investors released Monday. For US banks the cost of issuing such transactions could rise to around 9% from about 6% of capital relief obtained with such transactions.

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