Spring Statement 2026 in brief: what you need to know

UK chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to present new official economic forecasts to MPs on Tuesday © Charlie Bibby/FTSpring Statement 2026 in brief: what you need to know on x (opens in a new window)Spring Statement 2026 in brief: what you need to know on facebook (opens in a new window)Spring Statement 2026 in brief: what you need to know on linkedin (opens in a new window)Spring Statement 2026 in brief: what you need to know on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save Spring Statement 2026 in brief: what you need to know on x (opens in a new window)Spring Statement 2026 in brief: what you need to know on facebook (opens in a new window)Spring Statement 2026 in brief: what you need to know on linkedin (opens in a new window)Spring Statement 2026 in brief: what you need to know on whatsapp (opens in a new window) Save Valentina Romei in London PublishedMarch 3 2026Jump to comments sectionPrint this pageUnlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.UK chancellor Rachel Reeves on Tuesday claimed that she had “restored economic stability” in the face of global uncertainty, as she presented new official forecasts on the economy to MPs. But the projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility came as the Middle East conflict triggered a surge in energy prices and a big sell-off in gilts and caused traders to scale back bets on Bank of England interest rate cuts.OBR economic forecastsEconomic growth is expected to be 1.1 per cent in 2026, down from 1.4 per cent forecast in November 2025 but better than 0.9 per cent forecast by the Bank of England in February. Growth is set to pick up to 1.6 per cent in 2027 and 1.6 per cent in 2028, compared with 1.5 per cent forecast in November for both years.Inflation is set to decline from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 2.3 per cent this year, lower than the November forecast of 2.5 per cent for 2026.Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.3 per cent this year, up from 4.9 per cent forecast in November. It will fall to 4.9 per cent next year, higher than the 4.7 per cent previously estimated. Net migration is set to be 235,000 a year on average between 2026 and 2030, down from a November forecast of 295,000.GDP per capita growth, a measure of living standards, is set to rise from 0.8 per cent in 2026 to 1.3 per cent in both 2027 and 2028. The figure for the last two years is higher than previously expected.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Fiscal outlookCurrent budget is set to turn into a surplus by 2028-29, meeting the government’s “stability” rule of matching day-to-day spending with revenues by the end of the decade. Reeves’ “headroom” against her key fiscal rule is forecast to be £23.6bn, larger than the £21.7bn she built up in November. Public debt is forecast to decline from 82.9 per cent of GDP in 2028-29 to 82.2 per cent in 2029-30, meaning the chancellor meets her “investment” rule. Borrowing is set to be £132.7bn this year, £6bn lower than the November forecast. It was also revised down slightly in the final four years of the forecast, hitting £63.4bn in 2029-30, down £4bn on the previous estimate.Taxes as a share of GDP are forecast to increase from 36 per cent this year to 38 per cent by 2030-31, an all-time high, reflecting previous tax rises announced by Reeves. Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.There were no big policy announcements, in line with Reeves’ pledge to hold just one fiscal event a year in the autumn and give households and businesses more certainty. Data visualisation by Amy BorrettReuse this content (opens in new window) CommentsJump to comments section Follow the topics in this article UK economy Add to myFT UK politics Add to myFT UK Spring Statement 2026 Add to myFT UK Government Add to myFT Rachel Reeves Add to myFT CommentsUK chancellor Rachel Reeves on Tuesday claimed that she had “restored economic stability” in the face of global uncertainty, as she presented new official forecasts on the economy to MPs. But the projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility came as the Middle East conflict triggered a surge in energy prices and a big sell-off in gilts and caused traders to scale back bets on Bank of England interest rate cuts.OBR economic forecastsEconomic growth is expected to be 1.1 per cent in 2026, down from 1.4 per cent forecast in November 2025 but better than 0.9 per cent forecast by the Bank of England in February. Growth is set to pick up to 1.6 per cent in 2027 and 1.6 per cent in 2028, compared with 1.5 per cent forecast in November for both years.Inflation is set to decline from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 2.3 per cent this year, lower than the November forecast of 2.5 per cent for 2026.Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.3 per cent this year, up from 4.9 per cent forecast in November. It will fall to 4.9 per cent next year, higher than the 4.7 per cent previously estimated. Net migration is set to be 235,000 a year on average between 2026 and 2030, down from a November forecast of 295,000.GDP per capita growth, a measure of living standards, is set to rise from 0.8 per cent in 2026 to 1.3 per cent in both 2027 and 2028. The figure for the last two years is higher than previously expected.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Fiscal outlookCurrent budget is set to turn into a surplus by 2028-29, meeting the government’s “stability” rule of matching day-to-day spending with revenues by the end of the decade. Reeves’ “headroom” against her key fiscal rule is forecast to be £23.6bn, larger than the £21.7bn she built up in November. Public debt is forecast to decline from 82.9 per cent of GDP in 2028-29 to 82.2 per cent in 2029-30, meaning the chancellor meets her “investment” rule. Borrowing is set to be £132.7bn this year, £6bn lower than the November forecast. It was also revised down slightly in the final four years of the forecast, hitting £63.4bn in 2029-30, down £4bn on the previous estimate.Taxes as a share of GDP are forecast to increase from 36 per cent this year to 38 per cent by 2030-31, an all-time high, reflecting previous tax rises announced by Reeves. Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.There were no big policy announcements, in line with Reeves’ pledge to hold just one fiscal event a year in the autumn and give households and businesses more certainty. Data visualisation by Amy Borrett