Is Sirius XM Stock Going to $30?

By Lawrence Rothman, CFA – Mar 17, 2026 at 6:25PM ESTKey PointsSirius XM has struggled to grow revenue.It would need its P/S ratio to expand meaningfully.It's challenging to predict a company's future stock price. But by focusing on its fundamentals you can try to figure out the sales and earnings, and the corresponding multiples, needed to reach your price target. In the case of Sirius XM (SIRI +1.03%), the share price would have to rise 35% to reach a $30 target. Of course, besides the target, investors also need a time frame to make it a meaningful exercise. Let's say one year. Can Sirius XM's share price achieve this target within this period? Image source: Getty Images. The valuation It's important to understand Sirius XM's business before looking at valuation measures. It consists of Sirius XM (satellite radio), which mostly generates revenue through subscriptions, and Pandora/off-platform, which produces revenue primarily via advertising. The Sirius XM segment accounted for 75% of the company's 2025 revenue. The company has struggled to grow total revenue. Fourth-quarter revenue came in at $2.2 billion, flat from a year ago. Management forecasts Sirius XM's top line at $8.5 billion, in line with 2025's roughly $8.6 billion. Sirius XM seemingly trades at an attractive valuation in comparison to the market. It has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 compared to 8 a year ago. Although the earnings multiple expanded from 8 a year ago, that's well below the S&P 500 index's P/E ratio of 29. However, while the P/E ratio is a popular measure, Sirius XM's earnings are skewed by past impairment charges. Another useful metric is the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. On that basis, the stock trades at a 0.9 ratio. That's a fraction of the S&P 500's 3.3 multiple. Can the stock price reach the target? The valuation seemingly makes it seem like a value stock. However, investors shouldn't get fooled. Based on the business's prospects, it doesn't seem likely that Sirius XM's share price will reach $30 in a year. Forecasting flat sales, the P/S multiple would need to increase from 0.9 to 1.3. That's a tall task for a company that's not growing sales. As a point of reference, over the last year through March 13, Sirius XM's share price gained a scant 0.7%. ExpandNASDAQ: SIRISirius XMToday's Change(1.03%) $0.23Current Price$22.63Key Data PointsMarket Cap$7.5BDay's Range$22.41 - $22.9852wk Range$18.69 - $24.92Volume3.7MAvg Vol4.9MGross Margin40.65%Dividend Yield4.82% It's more challenging to look at earnings, particularly given that management didn't provide 2026 guidance. Still, it's a useful exercise. Last year, Sirius XM earned $2.23 a diluted share under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Assuming earnings remain flat, a reasonable assumption given the lack of sales growth, the P/E multiple would need to expand from 10 to 13. The numbers show that barring external events that you can't forecast, like Sirius XM becoming a meme stock, the stock reaching $30 over the next year is a big battle. The company will need to show substantial and sustained revenue increases that drive earnings growth. Right now, that's difficult to see happening.Read NextMar 12, 2026 •By Jack DelaneyThis Ridiculously Cheap Warren Buffett Stock Could Make You RicherMar 4, 2026 •By Will HealyWoodson Capital Loads Up On Sirius XM Stock, Buying 1.2 Million SharesMar 4, 2026 •By Sean Williams3 Historically Cheap Ultra-High-Yield Dividend Stocks -- Sporting an Average Yield of 5.68% -- Ripe for the Picking by Opportunistic Income SeekersMar 2, 2026 •By Neil PatelCould Buying Sirius XM Stock Today Set You Up for Life?Feb 26, 2026 •By Neil PatelWhat to Know Before Buying Sirius XM in 2026Feb 21, 2026 •By Neil PatelDown 97%, Should Investors Buy This High-Yield Dividend Stock in February?About the AuthorLawrence Rothman, CFA, has been a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst since 2019, covering consumer goods and retail stocks. Previously, Lawrence worked on Wall Street and at independent research firms before devoting his attention to finding successful long-term investments for individual investors.TMFLarryrothmanStocks MentionedSirius XMNASDAQ: SIRI$22.63(+1.03%)+$0.23*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.