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Signal Vs. Noise: Using NDX Volatility Spreads To Navigate Market Turbulence

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Geopolitical tensions escalated in March 2026 as U.S.-Israeli military operations in Iran spiked energy prices and reignited inflation fears, destabilizing global markets. The Nasdaq-100 (NDX) dropped nearly 5% in March, closing 12% below its November 2025 peak as investors reacted to heightened volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. Volatility spreads between NDX out-of-the-money puts and calls surged from an average of 6.5 to 11 points by April 1, signaling extreme bearish sentiment amid Middle East hostilities. Options market data revealed a sharp divergence in risk perception, with put volatility outpacing calls—a key indicator of growing downside protection demand among institutional traders. The shift underscores how geopolitical shocks can distort market signals, forcing traders to rely on volatility spreads as a real-time barometer for navigating turbulence.
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Nasdaq490 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)CommentsSummaryIn March, the investing and risk management landscape didn’t just shift, it wobbled from challenging to precarious.The American and Israeli military campaign across Iran pushed energy prices to multi-year highs and inflation expectations went from benign to malignant.The Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) declined by nearly 5% in March alone. By the 29th of the month, NDX closed ~12% below all-time highs from five months prior.Between early February 2026 and early March, when hostilities in the Middle East percolated, the volatility spread between NDX out-of-the-money (OTM) put and OTM call moved from ~average (6.5) to 11 points wide on April 1. Vladimir Zakharov/iStock via Getty Images By Kevin Davitt, Head of Options Content Signal, Noise, and NDX Option Indicators In March, the investing and risk management landscape didn’t just shift, it wobbled from challenging to precarious. During the first two months of 2026, theThis article was written byNasdaq490 FollowersFollowNasdaq (Nasdaq: NDAQ) is a leading global technology company serving corporate clients, investment managers, banks, brokers, and exchange operators as they navigate and interact with the global capital markets and the broader financial system. We aspire to deliver world-leading platforms that improve the liquidity, transparency, and integrity of the global economy. Our diverse offering of data, analytics, software, exchange capabilities, and client-centric services enables clients to optimize and execute their business vision with confidence.

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