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Should You Sell Your Stocks Right Now? History Offers a Crystal-Clear Answer.

newsfeedback@fool.com (Katie Brockman)
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Goldman Sachs economists now assign a 30% probability to a U.S. recession within 12 months, up from prior forecasts, citing surging oil prices and recent market declines. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have dropped nearly 6% and 9% from recent peaks, respectively, fueling recession fears—but historical data shows markets consistently recover over time. Despite short-term volatility, the S&P 500 has delivered over 623% total returns since 2000, proving long-term resilience through crises like the dot-com crash and Great Recession. Timing the market is nearly impossible; selling now risks missing rebounds, while waiting to sell during downturns locks in losses, per historical patterns. Experts advise holding or buying quality stocks during dips, as long-term investors (5+ years) typically outperform short-term traders amid economic uncertainty.
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By Katie Brockman – Mar 28, 2026 at 5:30AM ESTKey PointsEconomists at Goldman Sachs recently raised their recession odds to 30%.Despite a downturn potentially looming, history has good news for investors.The right strategy can help minimize risk and set you up for lucrative long-term earnings.Major market indexes have tumbled in recent weeks, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.67%) down nearly 6% from its high last month and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC 2.15%) falling close to 9% from its peak, as of this writing. Recession fears are also ramping up, as surging oil prices put pressure on the economy. So what does that mean for investors? If the U.S. enters a recession in 2026, stock prices could plunge. Fortunately, history offers a clear answer to how this might affect investors' strategies. Image source: Getty Images. The future is bright for investors With stock prices steadily dropping, it may be tempting to sell your stocks now before they lose any more value. However, history suggests that holding your investments is the more lucrative choice. So much of the short-term future is uncertain right now. While some investors worry a bear market is on the horizon, economists at Goldman Sachs only predict a 30% chance of a U.S. recession beginning in the next 12 months. While that's still an increase from previous forecasts, a recession this year isn't guaranteed. What is almost guaranteed, though, is the market's ability to thrive over time. To be clear, nothing is 100% certain when it comes to the stock market. But major market indexes have a century of history proving that they can survive even the most severe periods of volatility. In the last two decades alone, the market has faced historic downturns. In the early 2000s, for instance, the U.S. faced not only another war in the Middle East but also the dot-com implosion and collapse of the tech industry. Then, as soon as the market recovered from that downturn, the Great Recession began. Despite all of that volatility, however, the S&P 500 has earned total returns of more than 623% since January 2000. ^SPX data by YCharts Of course, hindsight is 20/20. If investors had known the dot-com bubble was about to burst, selling beforehand would have been a financially smart move. In most cases, however, there's no way to know whether we're in a bear market or recession until we're already deep in the thick of it. By that point, stock prices will have typically fallen so far that selling would result in steep losses. This makes it incredibly tough to time the market effectively. If you sell now and stock prices bounce back, you risk missing out on potential gains. But if you wait until we're already in a recession to sell, you risk locking in losses. The best move investors can make right now Selling your stocks now may seem like the safer option. If history shows us anything, however, it's that holding your investments for the long haul can be more lucrative and less risky. With a long-term outlook, you don't need to worry about selling your stocks at just the right moment. Your portfolio may lose value in the short term if we face a recession, but over time, strong investments will recover and deliver positive total returns. In fact, right now can actually be a smart time to buy more stocks. With stock prices falling, many investments are more affordable than they've been in months. By loading up on high-quality stocks and holding them for at least five to seven years, you're far more likely to make it through a recession unscathed.Read NextMar 28, 2026 •By Adam LevyShould the Current Stock Market Valuation Concern Investors? Here's What Billionaire Bill Ackman Thinks.Mar 28, 2026 •By Sean WilliamsDid Fed Chair Jerome Powell Throw President Donald Trump Under the Bus Concerning Inflation for a Second Straight FOMC Meeting?Mar 28, 2026 •By Sean WilliamsLook Beyond Skyrocketing Gas Prices! If a Stock Market Crash Takes Shape Under President Donald Trump, the Fed Is Likely to Be the Catalyst.Mar 27, 2026 •By Emma NewberyStock Market Today, March 27: Crude Surges Above $110, Driving Broad Sell-OffMar 27, 2026 •By Geoffrey SeilerWatch for This Buy Signal Before Jumping Into Stocks. It's Right 9 Out of 10 Times.Mar 27, 2026 •By David DierkingMarket Crash Fears Are Real, but Individual Investors Are Still BuyingAbout the AuthorKatie Brockman is a contributing writer at The Motley Fool covering retirement, Social Security, and investing fundamentals. Prior to The Motley Fool, Katie held various writing and editing roles at companies ranging from small start-ups to multimillion-dollar brands. Her work has appeared in USA Today, Inc magazine, and other authoritative media outlets. She holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration and management from Illinois Wesleyan University.TMFKatieBrockmanStocks MentionedS&P 500 IndexSNPINDEX: ^GSPC$6,368.85(-1.67%)-$108.31NASDAQ Composite IndexNASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC$20,948.36(-2.15%)-$459.72*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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