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See Potential for 4% Inflation in 2026: PIIE's Posen

Bloomberg
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Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, warns US inflation could exceed 4% by late 2026, citing persistent economic pressures and policy risks. Posen’s projection contrasts with current Fed targets, signaling potential long-term challenges for monetary policy and consumer stability amid geopolitical and domestic uncertainties. He weighed in on President Trump’s Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, suggesting Warsh’s potential appointment could shift central bank priorities toward deregulation and tighter monetary control. US-China competition remains a key inflation driver, with Posen highlighting supply chain disruptions and tech decoupling as lasting economic stressors through 2026. Global order fragmentation, trade tensions, and fiscal policies may further amplify inflationary pressures, complicating recovery efforts and Fed decision-making in the coming years.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Feb 13th, 2026See Potential for 4% Inflation in 2026: PIIE's PosenAdam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss the US geopolitical and economic outlook, including his recent call that he sees US inflation potentially exceeding four percent by the end of 2026. Posen also discusses President Trump's Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh, US-China competition and global order, and more. Posen speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec.

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