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SCHA: Attractive Valuations Support Upside For U.S. Small Caps

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⚡ Quantum Brief
The Schwab US Small-Cap ETF has outperformed large caps in early 2026, driven by lower valuations and stronger ties to the U.S. economy, which benefits from energy self-sufficiency amid geopolitical tensions. While small-cap valuations have risen, the ETF’s momentum may persist as GDP growth becomes the primary driver of earnings, replacing the AI-driven boost that propped up large caps. A key risk is the ETF’s heavy exposure to cyclical sectors, which could underperform if recession risks materialize in the U.S. economy later this year. Political uncertainty ahead of the 2026 midterms may also dampen returns, even if economic fundamentals remain strong. The outlook hinges on sustained U.S. growth, but macroeconomic and political headwinds could disrupt the ETF’s recent gains.
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Ivo Kolchev1.64K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(12min)Comments(2)SummaryThe Schwab US Small-Cap ETF has delivered a strong start to 2026, benefiting from cheap valuations and larger exposure to the energy-exporting U.S. economy.While SCHA holdings are not as cheap relative to large caps as they were at the start of the year, I believe the trend of SCHA outperformance is likely to continue.This will principally result from earnings growth increasingly being driven by GDP growth dynamics, with the one-off boost to S&P 500 earnings from AI exposure fading after 2026.A high cyclical sector allocation is a principal risk in the investment case, especially so against the backdrop of rising recession risks for the U.S. economy.Investors' caution towards U.S. stocks ahead of the 2026 midterm may dampen SCHA returns even if the U.S. economy continues to perform well. Vladimir Zakharov/iStock via Getty Images Introduction U.S. small caps have outperformed their large-cap peers so far in 2026, supported by attractive valuations and larger exposure to the U.S. economy, which benefits from energy self-sufficiency amid the war in Iran. In contrast, notably higher valuations andThis article was written byIvo Kolchev1.64K FollowersFollowI ventured into investing in high school in 2011, mainly in REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, starting a fascination with markets and the economy that has not faded despite the years. More recently I have been combining long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts. I approach investing purely from a fundamental long-term point of view.

On Seeking Alpha I mostly cover REITs and financials, with occasional articles on ETFs and other stocks driven by a macro trade idea.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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