Russia Sees War in Iran Squeezing Vital Air Defenses for Ukraine

Russia is dismayed by US and Israeli attacks on Iran but mostly powerless to aid its ally, and sees potential benefits for President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, according to five people familiar with the matter.Author of the article:You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.(Bloomberg) — Russia is dismayed by US and Israeli attacks on Iran but mostly powerless to aid its ally, and sees potential benefits for President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, according to five people familiar with the matter.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Demand for air-defense missiles from Gulf states facing Iranian attacks means there may be fewer resources for Ukraine, while US weapons sales for use by Kyiv may slow if the war in the Middle East becomes prolonged, two of the people said. All asked not to be identified discussing sensitive issues. Putin, who’s under indictment by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, condemned the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a “cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law” in a statement Sunday that avoided directly blaming Israel and US President Donald Trump. He urged an immediate end to hostilities in phone calls Monday with leaders of Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againInterested in more newsletters? Browse here.With the battlefield in eastern and southern Ukraine largely at a stalemate, Russia has waged an intense campaign of missile and drone strikes targeting energy infrastructure throughout the coldest winter in years in an attempt to bring Ukrainians to their knees.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has made repeated appeals to Kyiv’s allies to provide more air-defense missiles to try to shield the population from the attacks. He warned on Monday that a prolonged Middle East war “will undoubtedly influence the supply” of such weapons to his country. Zelenskiy said he spoke with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed on Tuesday about Iranian drone attacks and offered to help with strengthening protection.Khamenei’s death is a third strategic setback for the Kremlin in less than 18 months after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was ousted and US forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Cuba’s communist government is also struggling to resist US economic pressure with little help from Moscow.The reverses add to a weakening of Russia’s influence in its neighborhood since the start of the war in Ukraine, as alarmed former Soviet republics in the Caucasus and central Asia have turned to the US and other powers including China, the European Union and Turkey for stronger ties. While the weakening of another Kremlin ally is a blow for Putin, the jump in energy prices may help ease pressure on Russia’s budget deficit and boost his ability to fund the war to achieve his goals in Ukraine.Only a week ago, Russia’s government was weighing a substantial downgrade to its growth forecast for 2026 in response to sliding revenue from the deepest discount in its crude prices for almost three years. As Western sanctions deterred trade with Moscow, policymakers were braced for oil at $40 a barrel to be a prolonged reality.On Tuesday, global benchmark Brent surpassed $85 a barrel for the first time since July 2024, as the Middle East war upended energy markets and Trump declared the US would do “whatever it takes” to achieve its goals in Iran. Discounts on Russian oil that doesn’t need to go through the Strait of Hormuz to reach key markets in India and China may narrow now, supporting the Kremlin’s revenue. Still, “the spike in oil prices may be short term,” said Evgeny Kogan, a Moscow-based investment banker who runs his own advisory firm. “The fundamental picture for Russian oil companies remains not particularly attractive.” While Putin may not have known the full extent of Trump’s plans, Russian officials were given a strong steer by Israeli counterparts about the seriousness of his intentions in Iran in the weeks before the operation, other people with knowledge of the matter said, asking not to be identified because the issue is sensitive. That may help explain why Putin has done little to aid Tehran beyond criticizing the operation, they said.In practice, Russia has little leverage. Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a new strategic cooperation pact in Moscow in January last year, though it didn’t include a mutual-defense clause of the sort the Russian leader signed with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un seven months earlier.After Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites in June last year, Putin said that Tehran hadn’t asked for any defense assistance from Moscow. With Russia’s army incurring massive losses of equipment in the war in Ukraine that’s now in its fifth year, Putin has little military capacity to spare even if Iran sought help. The failure of Iran’s Russian-supplied S-300 air-defense systems to deter US and Israeli attacks is also an embarrassment for Moscow. So far, Russia and Ukraine are planning for another round of US-led peace talks scheduled to take place this week, though the Middle East conflict means Abu Dhabi is likely to be ruled out as a venue after hosting two previous meetings.Putin has avoided blaming Trump because he needs good ties with the US to further Russia’s goals in Ukraine, said Alexander Gabuev, Berlin-based director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Controversy over the legality of US actions in Iran may also benefit Moscow, he said.“The fact that this is another blow to the reputation of international law, equating Russia’s actions in Ukraine with what the United States is doing in Iran is good for Russia,” he said.

The Middle East is likely to gain priority for limited supplies of US-made Patriot air-defense missiles, which is “bad news for Ukraine,” he said.The attack has deepened Russian mistrust of the US, according to Ivan Timofeev, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council in Moscow. “It shows that any concessions rarely produce lasting compromise and may invite further demands,” he said. “That is why Moscow may be less inclined to give more concessions on Ukraine.”The war in Iran is unlikely to have an impact on Russia’s ability to fight in Ukraine, according to Emily Ferris, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Russia has localized production of Iranian Shahed drones and doesn’t rely on Tehran for supplies any longer, she said.A Western military assessment in January calculated that Russia had spent more than the equivalent of $4 billion on Iranian military equipment since late 2021, most of it on ballistic and surface-to-air missiles.Khamenei’s fate revives Russian anxieties about Western attempts at regime change. Putin was horrified when he watched a video of a mob killing and mutilating Libyan dictator Moammar Qaddafi in that country’s civil war in 2011 following a NATO-led intervention. At a meeting with journalists in June last year, he was asked what Russia’s reaction would be if Israel, with or without US help, killed Khamenei. “I don’t even want to discuss such a possibility,” Putin replied.“The idea that Western military power can remove leaders, as seen in past cases such as Qaddafi, is inherently unnerving for a regime whose stability depends heavily on the security of the top,” said Vita Spivak, a consultant at Gatehouse, a UK-based geostrategy advisory firm. “Nevertheless, Russia’s overriding foreign policy priority remains the war in Ukraine,” she said. “That reinforces restraint in public criticism of Trump personally.”—With assistance from Gina Turner.Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion. Please keep comments relevant and respectful. Comments may take up to an hour to appear on the site. You will receive an email if there is a reply to your comment, an update to a thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.