Robinhood's CEO says we're on the cusp of a 'prediction market supercycle'

Vlad Tenev said that prediction markets are about to see a supercycle. Steve Granitz/FilmMagic 2026-02-11T05:22:39.228Z Share Copy link Email Facebook WhatsApp X LinkedIn Bluesky Threads lighning bolt icon An icon in the shape of a lightning bolt.

Impact Link Save Saved Read in app This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now. Have an account? Log in. Vlad Tenev said prediction markets are the fastest-growing business in the company's history. Tenev said interest in prediction markets could surge with events like the Olympics and World Cup. Robinhood's quarterly earnings missed expectations despite a 27% increase in revenue. Prediction markets are hot — and about to get even hotter, says Robinhood's CEO. On Tuesday's earnings call, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev called prediction markets the fastest-growing business in the fintech company's history."We're just at the beginning of a prediction market supercycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time," he said. "This year is going to be a big year. Olympics are going on right now, World Cup coming in the summer." Supercycles refer to sustained, long-term periods of expansion spurred by high demand for a product. Companies like Kalshi, Polymarket, and, recently, Robinhood let users bet on the outcomes of events such as elections, sports matches, and pop culture events. The industry has seen an exponential surge in interest in the past year.In August, Robinhood launched its prediction markets offering, which lets users trade on the outcome of popular NFL and college football games. It has since expanded into bets on categories like the Oscars and elections. "You're also seeing relevant non-sports contracts generating significant volume," he said. "For example, in the week after the NFL season ended, the government shut down contract on our prediction markets platform was driving significant volume."Prediction markets are a small but quickly growing slice of Robinhood's overall revenue. Tuesday's financial results showed that "other" revenue, which includes prediction markets, rose from $72 million to $147 million between the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2025. Event trading volumes are rising steadily, too: The company received 3.4 billion event contracts in January, compared to 2.9 billion in December, 3 billion in November, and 2.5 billion in October.Overall, Robinhood's fourth-quarter earnings missed Wall Street expectations. Revenue rose 27% year over year in the quarter to $1.3 billion. Net income fell to $605 million, from $916 million in the same quarter in 2024. Shares of the investing platform fell over 7% in after-hours trading on Tuesday. It's down 24% so far this year because of worries of a decline in crypto revenue and competition from more established brokerages.