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Range Resources: NGL Prices Are Benefiting From The Iran Conflict (Downgrade)

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⚡ Quantum Brief
The company’s 14% NGL production—tied to oil prices—is driving 35% of its 2026 unhedged revenue, benefiting from geopolitical tensions boosting energy markets despite oil making up just 2% of output. Projected 2026 free cash flow surged to $859 million post-tax, reflecting higher NGL and oil-linked pricing, significantly improving near-term financial outlook amid Middle East instability. A new 11% dividend hike to $0.10 per share raises annual payouts to $94 million, signaling confidence in sustained cash flow growth from elevated energy commodity prices. Analysts revised the stock’s fair value to $44 per share, up from $39.50, citing a $5 long-term oil price increase and stronger 2026 free cash flow projections as key drivers. The upgrade stems from indirect oil exposure via NGLs, demonstrating how non-oil producers can capitalize on geopolitical price volatility without direct crude production reliance.
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Elephant AnalyticsInvesting Group LeaderFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)CommentsSummaryLess than 2% of Range's production is oil, but another 14% is NGLs with prices that are correlated to oil prices.Around 16% of Range's production (currently accounting for 35% of its 2026 unhedged revenues) is seeing significantly improved near-term prices.Range is now projected to generate $859 million in 2026 free cash flow after cash income taxes.It increased its quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.10 per share, resulting in $94 million in dividend payments per year.I've increased my estimate of Range's value from $39.50 to $44 per share due to a $5 increase in my long-term oil price plus its improved 2026 free cash flow projections.Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Distressed Value Investing. Learn More » Alones Creative/iStock via Getty Images Less than 2% of Range Resources' (RRC) production is oil, but it still benefits from higher oil prices. That is because approximately 14% of Range's total production involves NGL components that have prices that move withThis article was written byElephant Analytics11.87K FollowersFollowAaron Chow, aka Elephant Analytics has 15+ years of analytical experience and is a top rated analyst on TipRanks. Aaron previously co-founded a mobile gaming company (Absolute Games) that was acquired by PENN Entertainment. He used his analytical and modeling skills to design the in-game economic models for two mobile apps with over 30 million in combined installs. He is the author of the investing group Distressed Value Investing, which focuses on both value opportunities and distressed plays, with a significant focus on the energy sector. Learn more>>Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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