The Private Credit Selloff: Rising Risk Of Bank Contagion

Deep Value Investing11.66K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(19min)Comments(4)SummaryI see rising redemption pressure, weaker confidence in private loan values, and early signs that stress could spread to banks if the selloff continues.I see a bank contagion risk because markdowns on loans tied to private credit borrowers could reduce leverage and tighten funding across the system.In my view, that can create a negative loop: lower marks cut leverage, weaker returns drive redemptions, and redemptions can force loan sales at worse prices.I think public BDCs trading well below NAV suggest that the market does not fully trust private loan values under stress. Especially for the funds exposed to software.To be clear, I think the SaaS-pocalypse is nonsense. Yet the only real catalyst for a positive re-rating is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and I don't see that happening anytime soon. ridvan_celik/E+ via Getty Images I've been tuned in to private credit since the first cockroaches emerged in Q3 2025. In fact, as disclosed in my earlier coverage, I was short this industry through put options up until this week, which isThis article was written byDeep Value Investing11.66K FollowersFollowSmall deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well, you can land a Jumbo on the spread and still have clearance for take-off. From time to time, I buy shares, mostly to not be categorized as a degen by my fellow investor friends, therefore the 50%-50% allocation. My timeframe tends to be between 3-24 months.I like stocks that have experienced a recent sell-off due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at the new lower price. This is how I often screen through thousands of stocks, mainly in the US, although I may own shares in banana republics. I use fundamental analysis to check the health of companies that pass through my screening process, their leverage, and then compare their financial ratios with the sector, and industry median and average. I also do professional background checks of each insider who purchased shares after the recent sell-off. I use technical analysis to optimize the entry and exit points of my positions. I mainly use multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts. From time to time I draw trend lines, taken for granted, in multicolor patterns. Note: I tried to keep my introduction as real, and authentic as possible. I dislike empty suits, high-level BS, deep-level BS, unnecessary jargon, and self-indulgent, third-person written introductions with an air of superiority.Thanks for reading my introduction!Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.