Palantir Stock Soared Last Year. This Year It's Down Sharply. Is Now the Time to Buy?

By Daniel Sparks – Apr 1, 2026 at 8:51PM ESTKey PointsPalantir's revenue surged 70% year over year in Q4.The company closed $4.3 billion in total contract value bookings during the period, pointing to strong future demand.Trading at well over 200 times earnings, the stock demands near-flawless execution from here.Shares of artificial intelligence (AI) data analytics specialist Palantir Technologies (PLTR +0.14%) have struggled so far in 2026. Trading at $148 as of this writing, the stock is down 17% year to date. This meaningfully trails the broader market's performance, marking a sharp reversal for a company that was an absolute darling of Wall Street last year. Look past Palantir's sluggish stock performance over the past few months, however, and you will find a business that is executing exceptionally well. The company's AI tools are driving incredible enterprise demand, and its bottom-line profitability is surging in tandem. So, with the stock pulling back while the business accelerates, is this the moment for investors to buy? The answer depends almost entirely on how much of that future success is already baked into the current share price. Image source: Getty Images. Incredible business momentum Palantir's fourth-quarter financial update from February demonstrated how rapidly enterprises are adopting Palantir's platforms to build out their AI capabilities. The software company's revenue jumped 70% year over year to $1.41 billion. Additionally, soaring demand is evident in its pipeline of future work. Palantir's total contract value bookings in Q4 hit $4.3 billion, up 138% from the prior-year period. Profitability is soaring, too. The company reported adjusted operating income of $798 million for the period (up from $373 million in the year-ago quarter), equating to an impressive 57% operating margin. The company's recent momentum has been "propelled by the relentless momentum of our U.S. business," explained Palantir chief revenue officer Ryan Taylor in the company's fourth-quarter earnings call. Taylor also noted that the business is proving that "hyper-growth and exceptional profitability aren't mutually exclusive, but rather the inevitable outcome of Palantir delivering transformational impact at scale." The valuation problem The problem, however, is valuation. Trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 230 as of this writing, Palantir's stock already prices in staggering growth for years to come. Adding further context to just how high Palantir is priced, consider that it currently commands a market capitalization of about $350 billion, despite trailing-12-month revenue of just $4.5 billion. A valuation like this arguably assumes the company will face virtually no major competitive hurdles or macroeconomic speed bumps. If Palantir's revenue growth decelerates in the coming years or if corporate AI budgets tighten, the stock's premium multiple could contract. In addition, deep-pocketed tech giants are increasingly offering their own data analytics solutions, which could eventually pressure Palantir's pricing power. Every investment carries risks -- and Palantir is no exception. ExpandNASDAQ: PLTRPalantir TechnologiesToday's Change(0.14%) $0.21Current Price$146.49Key Data PointsMarket Cap$350BDay's Range$144.47 - $148.3052wk Range$66.12 - $207.52Volume34MAvg Vol50MGross Margin82.37% A great company, but not a great stock today I think Palantir is a phenomenal company. In fact, I think it has a durable competitive advantage, given its significant lead in the data analytics space. But I also believe the stock is priced for flawless execution right now. The 17% year-to-date pullback has removed some froth, but it has not created a genuine margin of safety. Of course, I also can't rule out the possibility that Palantir maintains its blistering growth rate for longer than expected and that the stock ultimately grows into its valuation. After all, Palantir management is incredibly bullish on the company's future."Everything we've built over two decades is converging into this moment," said Taylor during the company's most recent call, "and we're charging into the year with unmatched conviction as the defining enterprise software company of this generation." Overall, however, I would rather stay on the sidelines and wait for a better entry point before putting my capital to work. If the stock falls far enough to offer a clear discount, or if earnings catch up to the price, I will reconsider. For now, the risks associated with the valuation outweigh the potential rewards.Read NextApr 1, 2026 •By Adam Spatacco1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Software Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist Before It Soars 62%, According to Dan IvesApr 1, 2026 •By Manali Pradhan, CFA1 AI Stock That Could Turn $100 Per Month Into $10,389 in 5 YearsApr 1, 2026 •By Rick OrfordMassive News for Palantir Investors: This Defense Win Could Strengthen Its MoatApr 1, 2026 •By Justin PopeDoes Palantir's Massive Military AI Score Justify Buying the Stock at These Prices?Mar 31, 2026 •By Robert IzquierdoBetter Artificial Intelligence Stock: Palantir vs. OracleMar 31, 2026 •By Manali Pradhan, CFAShould You Buy Palantir Stock While the Pentagon Is Increasing Spending?About the AuthorDaniel Sparks is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering technology, industrials, financials, and consumer goods. Daniel is the owner and chief investment officer of Sparks Capital Management. He holds a master’s degree in business administration from Colorado State University. The Globe and Mail profiled him and his investing philosophy in an article titled, “This stock picker is outperforming nearly everybody else. Here’s how he is doing it.”TMFDanielSparksX@sparks_capitalStocks MentionedPalantir TechnologiesNASDAQ: PLTR$146.49(+0.14%)+$0.21*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.