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Palantir Obliterated Expectations And The Stock Sold Off: Mispricing At Its Finest

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⚡ Quantum Brief
Palantir’s stock plummeted despite beating Q4 expectations, with Q1 guidance 33% above consensus, driven by its U.S. commercial segment’s 145% year-over-year growth in remaining deal value. The company’s AI platform (AIP) and its "Chain Reaction" initiative are positioned as major 2026 growth catalysts, leveraging AI infrastructure demand amid broader enterprise adoption. Analysts label the selloff irrational, citing no cracks in Palantir’s growth trajectory, though its 115x forward earnings valuation raises concerns about overvaluation risks. Potential IPOs from AI rivals Anthropic and OpenAI within 24 months could pressure Palantir’s market position, adding volatility to its high-beta software sector alignment. The author maintains a "strong buy" rating, arguing the pullback reflects mispricing rather than fundamentals, with insider buying reinforcing long-term confidence.
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Deep Value Investing11.15K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(9min)CommentsSummaryI call Palantir's selloff from the October highs highly irrational, given that the growth story hasn't shown the slightest signs of cracks.As usual, the U.S. commercial segment drove outperformance, with Q1 guidance 33% above consensus and remaining deal value up 145% year-over-year in Q4 (above revenue growth).The Chain Reaction, built on the AIP platform, could be a key growth catalyst for the U.S. commercial growth this year, given its exposure to the AI's picks & shovels.Despite high valuation (115x forward earnings) and risks related to Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs in the next 12-24 months, I reiterate my strong buy rating. hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Heading into the Q4 print, I was bullish on Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), citing an irrational selloff driven by headlines and the company's high beta with the software industry. I had a high convictionThis article was written byDeep Value Investing11.15K FollowersFollowSmall deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well, you can land a Jumbo on the spread and still have clearance for take-off. From time to time, I buy shares, mostly to not be categorized as a degen by my fellow investor friends, therefore the 50%-50% allocation. My timeframe tends to be between 3-24 months.I like stocks that have experienced a recent sell-off due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at the new lower price. This is how I often screen through thousands of stocks, mainly in the US, although I may own shares in banana republics. I use fundamental analysis to check the health of companies that pass through my screening process, their leverage, and then compare their financial ratios with the sector, and industry median and average. I also do professional background checks of each insider who purchased shares after the recent sell-off. I use technical analysis to optimize the entry and exit points of my positions. I mainly use multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts. From time to time I draw trend lines, taken for granted, in multicolor patterns. Note: I tried to keep my introduction as real, and authentic as possible. I dislike empty suits, high-level BS, deep-level BS, unnecessary jargon, and self-indulgent, third-person written introductions with an air of superiority.Thanks for reading my introduction!Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PLTR either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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