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Osterweis Capital Management Q2 2026 Strategic Income Outlook

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⚡ Quantum Brief
Geopolitical tensions in Q1 2026 disrupted global energy markets, with the Strait of Hormuz closure pushing oil to $100 per barrel, threatening 25% of global oil and 20% of LNG supplies. AI advancements dominated headlines, as Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT drove rapid progress, reshaping tech and investment landscapes amid economic uncertainty. Private credit markets faced growing instability in early 2026, with the asset class—expanded since 2002—showing signs of stress amid broader financial volatility. Inflation remained subdued in early 2026 but is poised to spike due to energy price surges and geopolitical conflicts, reversing recent CPI slowdowns. Markets appeared resilient despite shocks, but underlying cracks emerged, signaling potential volatility ahead as economic and geopolitical pressures mount.
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Osterweis Capital Management32 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(13min)CommentsSummaryThe first three months of 2026 featured a mind-boggling confluence of geopolitical and economic events.AI has been another big headline maker over the last 12 months, particularly recently with further advancements in Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s ChatGPT.A related topic that started making regular headlines late last year is the ongoing trouble in the private credit market. The asset class has grown extremely rapidly since its inception in 2002.Oil is hovering around $100 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed. About 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas and 25% of the world’s oil originate in the region and must pass through the Strait.CPI for January and February was relatively benign and showed a minor slowing over the last 12 months but is expected to spike soon due to the war and rise in energy prices. tadamichi/iStock via Getty Images Despite a confluence of economic shocks in the first quarter, markets have held up remarkably well, but cracks appear to be forming beneath the surface. Like the title from the Oscar-winning movie, Everything, Everywhere All atThis article was written byOsterweis Capital Management32 FollowersFollowOsterweis Capital Management was founded in 1983 to serve the portfolio management needs of high net worth individuals and institutions. We believe the best way to protect and grow assets is through carefully selected, high conviction portfolios that are designed to capture upside in favorable markets and limit downside during selloffs. We manage equities and fixed income, which are available through mutual funds and separate accounts. Note: This account is not managed or monitored by Osterweis Capital Management, and any messages sent via Seeking Alpha will not receive a response. For inquiries or communication, please use the firm’s official channels. Mutual fund investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. Distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC.

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