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Osterweis Capital Management Q2 2026 Equity Outlook

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
The five largest hyperscalers will spend over $700 billion in 2026 on AI infrastructure, a 60% jump from 2025, signaling unprecedented capital intensity in cloud and AI hardware. Software firms, once seen as impregnable quality compounders, now face gradual moat erosion as AI commoditizes traditional services, reducing pricing power and competitive barriers. AI’s insatiable demand for compute is reshaping tech economics, favoring capital-heavy infrastructure providers over asset-light software models that dominated the past two decades. Investors must reassess valuation frameworks as hyperscalers’ aggressive capex outpaces revenue growth, raising questions about long-term profitability amid intensifying competition. The shift suggests a bifurcated tech landscape: infrastructure giants thrive on scale, while software firms struggle to defend margins in an AI-driven, cost-sensitive market.
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Osterweis Capital Management31 FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(13min)CommentsSummaryFor the better part of two decades, software companies and information services firms have been rightfully viewed as the archetypal quality compounders.The five largest hyperscalers are projected to deploy over $700 billion in aggregate capital expenditure this year, an increase of over 60% from 2025.If high capital intensity is the story for large technology companies providing the AI infrastructure of the future, the story for software companies is one of gradual moat erosion. mustafaU/iStock via Getty Images For the better part of two decades, software companies and information services firms have been rightfully viewed as the archetypal quality compounders. Once built, these businesses have been fortresses protected from competitive encroachment, resulting in significant pricing power andThis article was written byOsterweis Capital Management31 FollowersFollowOsterweis Capital Management was founded in 1983 to serve the portfolio management needs of high net worth individuals and institutions. We believe the best way to protect and grow assets is through carefully selected, high conviction portfolios that are designed to capture upside in favorable markets and limit downside during selloffs. We manage equities and fixed income, which are available through mutual funds and separate accounts. Note: This account is not managed or monitored by Osterweis Capital Management, and any messages sent via Seeking Alpha will not receive a response. For inquiries or communication, please use the firm’s official channels. Mutual fund investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. Distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC.

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