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Oshkosh: This Rally Isn't Over Yet, Though Macro Headwinds Loom

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⚡ Quantum Brief
Oshkosh Corporation’s stock surged 50.5% since May 2025, yet analysts see further upside potential due to its defense contracts and tactical vehicle dominance. 2026 guidance projects 5.5% sales growth, stable 9.6% operating margins, and $550–$650 million in free cash flow, signaling steady financial health. The Vocational segment drives near-term gains, while Access lags and Transport faces margin pressure from legacy contracts and electric delivery vehicle production. Analysts raised the price target to $175.06 but warn of tariff risks and cyclical vulnerabilities in the Access division. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, the company’s defense focus and cash flow strength justify a continued buy rating.
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Dhierin BechaiInvesting Group LeaderFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)CommentsSummaryOshkosh Corporation remains well-positioned for upside despite a 50.5% stock price increase since May 2025.2026 guidance implies modest 5.5% sales growth and stable 9.6% operating margins, with free cash flow guidance of $550–$650 million.Vocational segment leads near-term performance; Access lacks momentum, and Transport faces margin dilution from legacy contracts and delivery vehicle ramp.I maintain a buy rating with a raised price target of $175.06, but highlight tariff risks and cyclical exposure in Access.Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Aerospace Forum get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More » MikeMareen/iStock via Getty Images In May 2025, I added Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) to my coverage. In my view, as a provider of tactical wheeled vehicles to the U.S. Army and allied militaries, the company is positioned well to benefit from growingThis article was written byDhierin Bechai23.53K FollowersFollowDhierin-Perkash Bechai is an aerospace, defense and airline analyst. Dhierin runs the investing group The Aerospace Forum, whose goal is to discover investment opportunities in the aerospace, defense and airline industry. With a background in aerospace engineering, he provides analysis of a complex industry with significant growth prospects, and offers context to developments as they occur, describing how they might affect investment theses. His investing ideas are driven by data informed analysis. The investing group also provides direct access to data analytics monitors. Learn more.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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