OpenAI Won't Save ARKK

Jack Bowman9.33K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(11min)Comments(4)SummaryARK Innovation ETF has added a ~3% allocation to OpenAI via its Series C private placement, seeking exposure to frontier AI labs.I view OpenAI as overvalued at an $852B post-money valuation, as it is highly unprofitable and facing intensifying competition and shrinking market share.ARKK’s inclusion of OpenAI increases portfolio risk, as the company’s massive cash burn and product cancellations signal deteriorating fundamentals.I expect hyperscaler cloud providers, not pure-play AI labs, to capture the most value in AI and remain cautious on ARKK’s forward prospects.It is likely that OpenAI is the first of many private inclusions to ARKK. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images News As SpaceX (SPACE), Anthropic (ANTHRO), and OpenAI (OPENAI) seemingly race to go public, a trend of ETFs and other funds trying to get exposure to these private ventures pre-IPO has emerged. I've covered one ofThis article was written byJack Bowman9.33K FollowersFollowWriter | Investment Advisor | Economics Wonk | Top 5% on TipRanks | Long Signal, Short Noise | Author of The Macro Obsession, a weekly newsletter on current events and trends in finance, tech, and the real economy. My work focuses on my quest to uncover narrative trends before mainstream financial media, a process I've been describing as the hunt for information alpha. It is chart-heavy, macro-oriented, and data-driven.I invest across securities and asset classes. My focus has largely been on ETF investing, and I am known as a macro analyst, though I do cover stocks that I am personally trading or considering for my portfolio. These are typically technology and next-gen energy stocks or large caps with a juicy story.“Successful investing requires holding uncomfortably idiosyncratic positions.” — Howard Marks, paraphrasing David Swensen “History does not repeat, it instructs.” — Timothy Snyder, On TyrannyAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN, UBER, GOOGL, MSFT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.