Oil to Test Wartime Highs If Hormuz Standstill Drags, JPM Warns

Oil looks set to test levels seen at the height of the war in the Middle East if cargoes shipped through the Strait of Hormuz take until July to fully recover, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.Author of the article:You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.(Bloomberg) — Oil looks set to test levels seen at the height of the war in the Middle East if cargoes shipped through the Strait of Hormuz take until July to fully recover, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.At present, the market is pricing in a rapid resumption through the waterway, showing expectations for about half of normal flows being restored by May and a full resumption by June, analysts including Parsley Ong said in an April 10 note. However, “a more gradual resumption to 100% of pre-war levels by July might introduce $15-to-$20-a-barrel upside risk to prices,” they said.Both global benchmark Brent and West Texas Intermediate were just below the $100-a-barrel mark on Friday. From there, a $15-to-$20 rise would result in futures testing the crisis-era peaks near $120 seen in the middle of March.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againInterested in more newsletters? Browse here.The war in the Middle East has resulted in the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and despite Iran and the US agreeing on a temporary ceasefire, hundreds of vessels remain trapped in the region responsible for about one-third of the world’s oil production. Washington and Tehran are expected to hold talks this weekend, with the status of the route a key focus for both sides.An estimated 346 energy-related vessels were still trapped inside the Persian Gulf as of April 9, of which 241 were laden, the analysts said. Between them, they carried 104 million barrels of crude and condensates, 1.3 million tons of liquefied natural gas and 5.5 million barrels of liquefied petroleum gas.With Iran to its north, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to global markets. The waterway is an essential passage for the energy market, handling about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade in peacetime.Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion. Please keep comments relevant and respectful. Comments may take up to an hour to appear on the site. You will receive an email if there is a reply to your comment, an update to a thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.365 Bloor Street East, Toronto, Ontario, M4W 3L4© 2026 Financial Post, a division of Postmedia Network Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.This website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. Read more about cookies here. By continuing to use our site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.You can manage saved articles in your account.and save up to 100 articles!You can manage your saved articles in your account and clicking the X located at the bottom right of the article.