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Oil Shock, AI Tailwinds, And Portfolio Shifts Across Emerging Markets

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Middle East conflict drove oil prices above $100 in early 2026, straining oil-importing emerging markets while boosting exporters like Gulf states and Russia. Emerging markets began 2026 with strong momentum from 2025 gains, but geopolitical tensions and energy shocks forced selective portfolio adjustments to mitigate risks. Investors maintained long-term confidence in AI supply chain stocks and commodities despite volatility, trimming only non-core holdings to preserve exposure to high-growth sectors. Central banks in emerging markets face shorter, shallower rate-cut cycles as oil price surges complicate inflation control, delaying monetary easing plans. VanEck’s strategy reflects cautious optimism, balancing energy-driven headwinds with structural bets on AI and commodities amid shifting global economic conditions.
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VanEck5.26K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(40min)CommentsSummaryMiddle East conflict pushed oil above $100, creating near-term pressure on oil-importing EM economies while benefiting exporters.Long-term conviction in AI supply chain and commodity names held firm despite geopolitical volatility and selective portfolio trimming.Rate-cutting cycles across EM will likely run shorter and shallower than expected as the energy shock complicates central bank decisions. Vladimir Zakharov/iStock via Getty Images Emerging markets started off strong in 2026, but Middle East conflict and surging oil prices created new headwinds, leading to targeted portfolio changes. Emerging markets entered 2026 with real momentum built through 2025, supported byThis article was written byVanEck5.26K FollowersFollowVanEck is a global asset management firm offering ETFs, mutual funds, private funds, model portfolios, institutional strategies, separately managed accounts, as well as UCITS funds. Since our founding in 1955, putting our clients’ interests first, in all market environments, has been at the heart of the firm’s mission. VanEck has a long history of looking beyond financial markets to spot trends that create meaningful investment opportunities. We were one of the first U.S. asset managers to give investors access to international markets, which set the tone for identifying asset classes and themes such as gold investing in 1968, emerging markets in 1993, and exchange traded funds in 2006 that later helped shape the investment industry. The firm oversees $161.7 billion in assets as of September 30, 2025. Disclosures: http://ow.ly/SZ9450N5qTJ.

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