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Oil Shock Meets Asset Price Deflation

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Canada’s economy has stalled with zero growth for five months and no job gains in eight, signaling deepening recessionary pressures as of March 2026. Stock markets are retreating, with the S&P 500 and Canada’s TSX both down over 7%, erasing gains to July 2025 and December 2025 levels, respectively. Oil-price inflation fears are driving Treasury yields higher, with futures markets pricing in two Bank of Canada rate hikes this year and a 30% chance of a third. Household wealth is shrinking as national home prices drop 20% over four years, reversing the wealth effect and tightening consumer spending power. The dual crisis of oil shocks and asset deflation is forcing policymakers to balance inflation control with economic stagnation, risking prolonged financial instability.
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Danielle Park, CFA6.48K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(3min)Comments(2)SummaryCanada’s economy has generated no economic growth in five months and no job growth in eight months.The S&P 500 and Canada’s TSX are both off more than 7% and back to their levels last July and December 2025, respectively.Against this backdrop, fears of persistent oil-price inflation have caused Treasury yields to rise as the futures market is pricing in two Bank of Canada rate hikes in 2026, with a 30% chance of a third. MURAT GOCMEN/iStock via Getty Images Canada’s economy has generated no economic growth in five months and no job growth in eight months. Meanwhile, the household wealth effect is in reverse, with home sale prices nationally down 20% over the past 4 years andThis article was written byDanielle Park, CFA6.48K FollowersFollowPortfolio Manager, financial analyst, attorney, finance author, a regular guest on North American media. Danielle Park is the author of the best selling myth-busting book “Juggling Dynamite: An insider’s wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts,” as well as a popular daily financial blog:www.jugglingdynamite.com Danielle worked as an attorney until 1997 when she was recruited to work for an international securities firm. A Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), she now helps to manage millions for some of Canada's wealthiest families as a Portfolio Manager and analyst at the independent investment counsel firm she co-founded Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc. www.venablepark.com. For two decades, Danielle has been writing, speaking and educating industry professionals and investors on the risks and realities of investment behaviors. A member of the internationally recognized CFA Institute, Toronto Society of Financial Analysts, and the Law Society of Upper Canada. Danielle is also an avid health and fitness buff.

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