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Oil Rises as Traders Weigh Risk of US-Iran Conflict After Talks

Alex Longley
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Oil prices surged 3.6% to over $64 per barrel as traders assessed escalating US-Iran tensions, with West Texas Intermediate leading gains amid fears of prolonged conflict disrupting global supply. A leaked Axios report revealed potential US military action against Iran could span weeks, contrasting with recent short-term operations like Venezuela’s, heightening market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. Israel’s push for regime change in Iran further intensified concerns, as its advocacy for aggressive intervention risks destabilizing regional oil production and export routes critical to global energy markets. The price spike reflects traders’ bets on prolonged supply disruptions, with the timeline of US operations—now framed as extended—overshadowing earlier optimism about diplomatic progress in nuclear talks. Markets remain on edge as conflicting signals from negotiations and military preparations create a high-risk environment, forcing energy traders to price in worst-case scenarios for Middle East stability.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Middle East Crisis:Oil gained as traders weighed whether talks between the US and Iran will be enough to avert conflict, following a report that American military intervention could come sooner than expected.West Texas Intermediate rose as much as 3.6% to trade above $64 a barrel after Axios reportedBloomberg Terminal that any US military operation would likely be a weeks-long campaign, rather than the pinpoint operation that took place in Venezuela last month. Israel’s government is pushing for a scenario targeting regime change, the report added.

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Source: Bloomberg

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