Oil prices forecast to jump despite Opec+ pledge to raise output

Global oil prices are projected to surge in 2026 despite OPEC+’s commitment to increase production, signaling persistent supply-demand imbalances in energy markets. Analysts warn the output hike—announced to stabilize prices—may fall short due to geopolitical tensions and unexpected demand spikes from post-pandemic economic recovery. Refineries face constraints as sanctions on key producers and infrastructure bottlenecks limit actual supply growth, exacerbating volatility. Traders anticipate Brent crude could breach $100 per barrel by mid-2026, reversing earlier forecasts of gradual price stabilization. The disparity between OPEC+ pledges and market realities underscores structural challenges in balancing global energy supply amid shifting economic and political landscapes.