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Odd Lots: The Scramble Is On for Tariff Refund Checks (Podcast)

Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal
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2 min read
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⚡ Quantum Brief
The Supreme Court ruled in February 2026 that Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariffs were unlawful, triggering a rush for refunds by importers who paid billions under the policy. Businesses face uncertainty over refund timelines and claim processes, with no guaranteed payouts despite legal victories. Filing requires complex documentation, potentially delaying reimbursements for months or years. A secondary market has emerged, with traders buying tariff refund claims at steep discounts—sometimes as low as 50 cents on the dollar—betting on eventual payouts while businesses seek immediate liquidity. Companies that passed tariff costs to consumers via higher prices now debate whether refunds should trickle down to shoppers, though no legal mechanism currently enforces this. Since the tariffs began, global trade adapted through supply chain shifts and loophole exploitation, reshaping industries—though the refund chaos may further disrupt markets.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the worldAmericas+1 212 318 2000EMEA+44 20 7330 7500Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000Earlier this month, the Supreme Court ruled that Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs were illegal. And now basically every importer who paid those tariffs will be rushing to get their refunds. But will businesses actually get paid? And how do they file a claim? And should consumers get refunded if a business passed the cost of the tariffs on to them? On this episode, we're rejoined by regular Odd Lots guest Ryan Petersen, the CEO of Flexport, a major freight forwarding company. We discuss how the entire refund process works, and the estimated timeline for payoff. We also talk about the booming secondary market in refund claims, where traders are buying up other people's claims for, in some cases, 50 cents on the dollar. Ryan also walks us through how world trade has changed since the tariffs began and the various way companies tried to game the system.Feb 27, 2026

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