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Nvidia still hasn't sold its U.S.-approved China AI chips — and it’s worried local AI rivals could take over

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⚡ Quantum Brief
Nvidia has yet to ship any U.S.-approved H200 AI chips to China despite December’s eased export rules, with CFO Colette Kress confirming no revenue generated from the limited approved sales. The stalled shipments follow 2024 restrictions that forced Nvidia to create a weaker H20 chip for China, later replaced by H200 under a 25% U.S. revenue-sharing deal, now delayed by ongoing security reviews. China once contributed over 20% of Nvidia’s data center revenue, but the company now warns Chinese rivals—backed by recent IPOs—could disrupt global AI dominance long-term. Chinese AI chipmakers like Moore Threads and firms like MiniMax surged post-IPO, offering cheaper alternatives, with OpenAI’s Sam Altman calling their progress "remarkable" in key areas. Analysts predict most of the world could adopt Chinese AI tech stacks within a decade, as cost advantages and rapid advancements narrow the gap with U.S. leaders.
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BEIJING — U.S. chip giant Nvidia has yet to recoup its lost sales in China, despite Washington easing some restrictions, and the company is sounding the alarm about rising competition from Chinese rivals."While small amounts of H200 [semiconductor] products for China-based customers were approved by the US government, we have yet to generate any revenue," Nvidia's CFO Colette M. Kress said on an earnings call Wednesday local time, according to a FactSet transcript. "We do not know whether any imports will be allowed into China," she said.China once accounted for at least one-fifth of Nvidia's data center revenue.U.S. export controls previously forced Nvidia to develop a lower-capability chip for the Chinese markets called the H20.New rules last April required Nvidia to halt those sales, before U.S.

President Donald Trump in December allowed the U.S. company to ship the more advanced H200 chip to China, provided the U.S. got a 25% cut of sales.But sales have stalled amid reports of security scrutiny in both countries, despite Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's lobbying in Washington, D.C. and a trip to China earlier this year.The semiconductor giant also warned investors about rising competition from the world's second-largest economy."Our competitors in China, bolstered by recent IPOs, are making progress and have the potential to disrupt the structure of the global AI industry over the long-term," Kress said. She urged the U.S. to encourage every developer and business, including those in China, to use American technology.A flurry of Chinese AI chipmakers and large language model developers have gone public in Hong Kong and mainland China in the last few months. Expectations that the companies could be alternatives to U.S.-developed AI technology have helped the stocks — such as MiniMax and Moore Threads — surge soon after their IPOs, though not all names have seen sustained gains.OpenAI's Sam Altman also described the progress of Chinese tech companies across the entire stack as "remarkable" in an interview with CNBC on Feb. 19. He also noted that Chinese tech companies are near the frontier in some areas.While Chinese AI companies lag the U.S. slightly in capabilities, their products are typically far cheaper than their American rivals."You could see easily a world where maybe most of the world's population is running on a Chinese tech stack in five to 10 years' time," Rory Green, TS Lombard's chief China economist and head of Asia research, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" earlier this month.Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you.Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inboxGet this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services.© 2026 Versant Media, LLC.

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