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New York Life's Goodwin: Affordability, Not Inflation, Is Short-Term Market Catalyst

Bloomberg
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Lauren Goodwin, Chief Market Strategist at New York Life, identifies affordability—not inflation—as the primary short-term driver of US markets in early 2026, shifting focus from persistent inflation concerns. Federal Reserve policy remains pivotal, but Goodwin warns its impact on consumer spending and corporate margins is increasingly uncertain amid fluctuating economic signals and delayed policy effects. Tariff-related inflation pass-through lacks clarity, complicating forecasts as supply chain disruptions and trade policy shifts create volatile cost pressures for businesses and consumers alike. Supply chain instability persists, directly affecting consumer prices and corporate profitability, with policy changes amplifying unpredictability in global trade and domestic production costs. Goodwin emphasizes that while inflation risks linger, immediate market dynamics hinge more on wage growth, housing costs, and consumer purchasing power than on traditional inflation metrics.
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Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world New York Life Investments' Goodwin: Affordability, Not Inflation, Is Short-Term Market Catalyst Lauren Goodwin, Economist and Chief Market Strategist at New York Life Investments, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss the state of the US economy and inflation, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and more. Goodwin also discusses the lack of clarity around tariff inflation passthrough and the continuous fluctuation of supply chains and policy, which can then impact consumers directly and indirectly. Goodwin speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Explore live news and interviews, documentary features, reporter analysis and more, all in one place. By accepting, you agree to our updated Terms of Service, including the arbitration provision and class action waiver. You understand that we process your information as described in the Privacy Policy, which may include sharing information about your use of Bloomberg.com with third parties. Accepting does not affect your right to opt-out at any time via the Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information link in the website footer.

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