Nebius: A Gift At Current Consolidation - Cloud Super Cycle Continues

Juxtaposed Ideas15.34K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(11min)CommentsSummaryNebius expects to deliver triple-digit YoY revenue growth in its core AI cloud in FY2026, aided by the aggressive capacity expansions and the strong pricing trends.Management expects an FY2026 adj. EBITDA margin of 40%, driven by the revised depreciation schedule from extended GPU longevity and the improved operating leverage.The prior market pessimism surrounding cloud-related debt risks does not apply here, as observed in NBIS' strategic capex and prudent capital raises without excessive dilution/debt.Thanks to the ongoing consolidation since September 2025, NBIS now trades at an even more compelling FWD EV/Sales of 6.95x, with a projected revenue growth at 3Y CAGR of +201.2%.NBIS faces elevated short interest (17.04%), high beta (2.65x), and near-term EPS pressure from ramping capacity, making it suitable only for higher-risk, long-term investors. Daniel Grizelj/DigitalVision via Getty Images I previously covered Nebius Group (NBIS) in November 2025, discussing why I had finally upgraded the stock to a Buy then, thanks to the improved margin of safety/cheaper valuation arising from the prior meltdown, theThis article was written byJuxtaposed Ideas15.34K FollowersFollowI am a full-time analyst interested in a wide range of stocks. With my unique insights and knowledge, I hope to provide other investors with a contrasting view of my portfolio, given my particular background.If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me via a direct message on Seeking Alpha or leave a comment on one of my articles.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN, GOOG, META, AMZN, CRWV either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The analysis is provided exclusively for informational purposes and should not be considered professional investment advice. Before investing, please conduct personal in-depth research and utmost due diligence, as there are many risks associated with the trade, including capital loss.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.