Nat-Gas Sink on Above-Normal US Weather Forecasts

AAPL TSLA AMZN META AMD NVDA PEP COST ADBE GOOG AMGN HON INTC INTU NFLX ADP SBUX MRNA AAPL TSLA AMZN META AMD NVDA PEP COST ADBE GOOG AMGN HON INTC INTU NFLX ADP SBUX MRNA AAPL TSLA AMZN META AMD NVDA PEP COST ADBE GOOG AMGN HON INTC INTU NFLX ADP SBUX MRNA Stocks Nat-Gas Sink on Above-Normal US Weather Forecasts March 13, 2026 — 05:21 pm EDT Written by Rich Asplund for Barchart-> April Nymex natural gas (NGJ26) on Friday closed down -0.102 (-3.15%).Nat-gas prices on Friday gave up an early advance and settled sharply lower on forecasts for above-normal US weather, potentially curbing heating demand for nat-gas. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said Friday that forecasts shifted warmer with widespread above-average temperatures in the western two-thirds of the US for March 18-22. Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis. Nat-gas prices surged last week, with European nat-gas prices climbing to a 3-year high last Tuesday due to the war in Iran. Last Monday, Qatar shut its Ras Laffan plant, the world's largest natural gas export facility, after it was targeted by an Iranian drone attack.

The Ras Laffan plant accounts for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas supply, and its closure could boost US nat-gas exports. US (lower-48) dry gas production on Friday was 113.1 bcf/day (+5.2% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 81.7 bcf/day (+5.5% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 20.2 bcf/day (+4.5% w/w), according to BNEF.Projections for higher US nat-gas production are bearish for prices. On February 17, the EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US dry nat-gas production to 109.97 bcf/day from last month's estimate of 108.82 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs posting a 2.5-year high last Friday.As a positive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended March 7 rose +1.00% y/y to 78,133 GWh (gigawatt hours). Also, US electricity output in the 52-week period ending March 7 rose +1.69% y/y to 4,309,018 GWh.Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices, as nat-gas inventories for the week ended March 6 fell by -38 bcf, a smaller draw than the market consensus of -41 bcf and the 5-year weekly average draw of -64 bcf. As of March 6, nat-gas inventories were up +8.8% y/y and -0.9% below their 5-year seasonal average, signaling near-normal nat-gas supplies. As of March 11, gas storage in Europe was 29% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 42% full for this time of year.Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending March 13 rose by +1 to 133 rigs, just below the 2.5-year high of 134 rigs from February 27. In the past 17 months, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.75-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. More news from Barchart Is Natural Gas Heading Lower as the Shoulder Season Approaches?

Natural Gas Prices Just Hit $6.

How Much Higher Will They Go Here Amid Winter Storm Fern?

Our Top Technical Strategist Explains How to Invest in the 'Age of Electricity' Energy Commodities in Q4 and 2025- What are the Prospects for Q1 2026 and Beyond? The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Tags Stocks Barchart With headquarters in the heart of Chicago's financial district, Barchart has been an industry-leader since 1995 when we launched Barchart.com as one of the first websites for commodities and futures market data. Since then, we have evolved into a global financial technology leader providing market data and services to the global financial, media, and commodity industries. More articles by this source-> More Related Articles This data feed is not available at this time. Data is currently not available • Sign up for the TradeTalks newsletter to receive your weekly dose of trading news, trends and education. Delivered Wednesdays.