Most people have already gotten their tax refunds. That’s bad news for restaurants and retailers.

Early 2026 tax refunds have already peaked, leaving restaurants and retailers vulnerable as consumers face rising gas prices tied to the prolonged Iran conflict. Drive-thru restaurants are particularly at risk, with data showing a $1 gas price hike reduces daily customers by six, compounding financial strain amid weaker refund-driven spending. Wall Street’s anticipated spending boost from Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" tax reforms has faltered, as higher fuel costs absorb potential consumer discretionary income. Clothing stores and quick-service eateries—reliant on refund-fueled purchases—now face declining foot traffic as gas prices erode disposable income earlier than expected. The timing of refund disbursement and geopolitical tensions has created a perfect storm, accelerating economic pressure on sectors dependent on short-term consumer liquidity.