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Moderna: Speculative Buy For Aggressive Investors Betting On mRNA's Future

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
A November 2023 buy recommendation for the biotech firm backfired, with shares plunging 37.2% to $48.23 by March 2026, as COVID-19 vaccine demand collapsed faster than anticipated. 2024 Spikevax sales hit just $3.1 billion—down sharply from pandemic peaks—while RSV vaccine revenue disappointed at $25 million, failing to counter COVID-19 declines. Annual revenue fell 40% year-over-year to $1.9 billion in 2025, but the company retains $8.1 billion in cash and a low 0.151 debt-to-equity ratio, preserving financial flexibility. Future growth depends entirely on its mRNA pipeline, with no guaranteed commercial successes, making the stock a high-risk bet on unproven therapies. Analysts warn the investment remains speculative, hinging on regulatory approvals and market adoption of next-gen mRNA products beyond infectious diseases.
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Star Investments7.11K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(30min)CommentsSummaryMy previous recommendation of Moderna didn't work out so well, because COVID sales have declined over the last several years.Spikevax 2024 sales reached only $3.1B, and RSV sales were a major disappointment at $25M, failing to offset COVID-19 declines.Despite a 40% YoY revenue drop to $1.9B in 2025, MRNA maintains robust liquidity with $8.1B in cash/investments and a conservative 0.151 debt-to-equity ratio.MRNA remains speculative, as future performance hinges on pipeline approvals and commercial success. hapabapa/iStock Editorial via Getty Images I decided to do a postmortem on my November 20, 2023 buy recommendation for Moderna (MRNA). That recommendation didn't work out too well; the stock dropped 37.20% from article publication to its March 30 closing price of $48.23. My thesisThis article was written byStar Investments7.11K FollowersFollowI have been a Merchant Seaman that has traveled the world for over 30 years. Within the last 15 years, I developed a very intense interest in investing. I learned a lot of what I know about investing from The MF. Also because I have a engineering background, I often tend to gravitate to Tech stocksAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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