Is Microsoft Back on Its Way to the $4 Trillion Club? Wall Street Seems to Agree on an Answer.

By Stefon Walters – Apr 14, 2026 at 1:06AM ESTKey PointsMicrosoft has a large backlog of customers waiting for capacity on its cloud platform to become available.Microsoft projects that it will spend over $100 billion on capital expenditures this year.Q1 2026 was the company's worst first quarter since the financial crisis.I hate to state the obvious, but it has been a less-than-ideal start to the year for Microsoft (MSFT +3.64%) stock. As of April 9, the stock is down 22% year to date. The only "Magnificent Seven" stock to start the year worse is Tesla (TSLA +0.99%), which is down nearly 23%. Microsoft's slump so far has been driven by a combination of things, including its artificial intelligence (AI) spending plans and a broader tech sector sell-off. But despite the stock's worst start to the year since the 2008 financial crisis, a few Wall Street analysts believe it is due for a good rebound and then some. Image source: The Motley Fool. Where some analysts think Microsoft's stock is headed In recent reports, here is where analysts from three prominent Wall Street companies set their price targets for Microsoft: CompanyMicrosoft 12-Month Share Price TargetJeffries$675Morgan Stanley$650Goldman Sachs$600 Data source: Analysts' reports. As of market close on April 8, Microsoft's stock was just above $374, giving it a market cap of $2.78 trillion. If it were to hit each of those three price targets, here's where its market cap would sit: $675 (up 80.5%): $5 trillion. $650 (up 73.8%): $4.8 trillion. $600 (up 60.4%): $4.5 trillion. Where Microsoft's growth is going to come from You can make the case that Microsoft's stock was due for a correction because it was trading at a high premium. You can't make the case that Microsoft's recent business performance or its outlook warranted it losing more than a fifth of its value to start the year. In these analysts' reports, one common theme is optimism about Microsoft's cloud business. And I agree with them. Much of its future growth will come from its cloud platform, Azure. Right now, Azure has a good problem: Its backlog is piling up, but it doesn't have enough capacity to take on all the customers who want to use its data centers and platform. Its commercial backlog was $625 billion at the end of 2025, though 45% of that came from its OpenAI contracts. The concentration of revenue coming from (and due to come from) that single customer isn't ideal, but there are worse problems to have. OpenAI plans to spend around $600 billion on computing power through 2030, and as one of its cloud providers, Azure stands to gain a lot from this spending plan. Increasing demand for cloud and AI services is largely why Microsoft projects that it will spend over $100 billion on capital expenditures this year to build out its cloud and AI infrastructure. Those outlays might cut into its short-term free cash flow, but they will put it in a better position to capitalize on the growth of the AI ecosystem. Business success doesn't always translate to stock success, but Microsoft has the growth opportunities that should eventually put the stock back on an upward trajectory.Read NextApr 14, 2026 •By Lyle DalyBest Wide-Moat Stocks for 2026 and How to InvestApr 13, 2026 •By Keith NoonanBest Blue Chip Stocks to Buy in 2026: Should You Invest?Apr 13, 2026 •By Eric VolkmanWhy Microsoft Stock Topped the Market TodayApr 13, 2026 •By David Jagielski, CPAShould You Buy Microsoft Stock Before April 29?Apr 13, 2026 •By James Brumley1 "Magnificent Seven" Stock That's a Better Buy Than the Other 6 Right NowApr 12, 2026 •By Keithen DruryThis Is How Microsoft Is Making Money from AI Right NowAbout the AuthorStefon Walters is a contributing Motley Fool stock market analyst covering publicly traded companies across technology, consumer goods, and financials, as well as retirement planning. Stefon is a published author and has more than a decade of experience teaching financial literacy. He holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.TMFStefonWStocks MentionedMicrosoftNASDAQ: MSFT$384.38(+3.64%)+$13.51*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.