Merz Conservatives Face Stiff Test in One-Time German Stronghold

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives are facing an unexpected challenge in their bid to wrest back power in a wealthy southwestern region from the Greens, the first in a series of state electoral tests for the German leader this year.Author of the article:You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.(Bloomberg) — Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives are facing an unexpected challenge in their bid to wrest back power in a wealthy southwestern region from the Greens, the first in a series of state electoral tests for the German leader this year. Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Merz’s Christian Democratic Union was the heavy favorite to beat the environmental party into second place in Baden-Wuerttemberg in the months leading up to Sunday’s vote, with ambitions to take back the reins of government after 15 years. But the CDU, once dominant in the home of the Black Forest and carmakers Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Porsche AG, has watched its poll lead all but evaporate amid local gaffes and Merz’s broader struggle to gain traction nationally. A loss in the region would deal a heavy blow to a chancellor who has seen his support tank since taking the top job 10 months ago. Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againInterested in more newsletters? Browse here.The chancellor has campaigned heavily in the state, seeking to rally voters with a message that his party is the reliable steward of the world’s No. 3 economy at a time of geopolitical turmoil. At a Feb. 20 party conference in Stuttgart, the state’s capital, he called the center-right party the “DNA of this republic.” Merz’s record on the economy, which is emerging from years of stagnation, will swing into focus in Baden-Wuerttemberg, a region of 11 million whose manufacturing base has been hit by industrial transformation and technological disruption. Output there contracted more sharply than in Germany as a whole, with insolvencies at their highest level since the global financial crisis in 2008. Layoffs dominate local headlines. Auto supplier Robert Bosch GmbH plans to cut some 10,000 jobs in Baden-Wuerttemberg and close or scale back plants as it shifts production to China. Porsche, whose iconic crest mirrors the state’s coat of arms, is shedding nearly 4,000 positions, among cuts taking place across the car industry. Unemployment in the state remained at 4.8% last month, buoyed by geopolitical tension, including trade policy. The state economy minister, Nicole Hoffmeister-Kraut, a CDU member, said Feb. 27 that there was “no sign of a comprehensive recovery.” “People need security, not fear of the next wave of layoffs,” said Barbara Resch, head of labor union IG Metall in Baden-Wuerttemberg, urging the next state government to cut energy costs, streamline bureaucracy and invest in infrastructure to protect jobs.The Greens pulled even with the CDU at 28% apiece, according to a poll Thursday from broadcaster ZDF. Other polls had the conservatives with a narrow lead. The far-right Alternative for Germany registered at 18%, almost doubling its support from five years ago.

The Social Democrats, which govern nationally with Merz, had 8% support in the state, the ZDF survey showed. The narrowing poll gap for Merz’s party is also down to local politics. The CDU candidate, 37-year-old state lawmaker Manuel Hagel, drew attention last month with a resurfaced video in which he can be seen describing a 2018 school visit, including an encounter with a girl with “brown hair, doe-like brown eyes.” While his broader point was about political communication, he was forced to respond to accusations of sexism. Hagel called the clip “awful,” even as he raised questions about its appearance on social media days before the election. But economic malaise across the country remains the dominant theme. The managing director of the DIHK industry lobby, Helena Melnikov, said Merz’s government will have to prove this year that he can follow through with promised reforms, with “too little” achieved so far. “The mood in the economy is worse than I have ever seen it,” Melnikov told Bloomberg News ahead of the vote. A CDU win would end its decade-and-a-half stint away from the helm of government. The once-upstart Greens shocked the German political establishment months after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster by defeating the conservatives, who had governed uninterrupted since 1953, a year after the state was founded. Germany’s first Green state premier, Winfried Kretschmann, became a popular fixture with moderate policies, proving the 2011 victory was no anomaly. He’s led a coalition with the CDU for the last decade. The announcement by the 77-year-old premier that he wouldn’t run for a fourth term gave Merz’s party its opening. Should the Greens extend their rule, Kretschmann would be succeeded by Cem Özdemir, 60, a one-time party leader and federal agriculture minister who would become the first state premier of Turkish descent in Germany. His parents emigrated to West Germany in the 1960s as the country hosted foreign workers to address labor shortages. The contest in Baden-Wuerttemberg is the first of five state elections this year that will test Merz’s chancellorship as well as the hold of traditional parties in power. The surge in support for the anti-immigrant AfD will dominate two ballots in the former communist east in September, including in Saxony-Anhalt, where the party is in striking distance of securing an outright majority. On March 22, the CDU remains a slight favorite to win in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate, which has been governed by the Social Democrats since 1991. —With assistance from Jenni Thier, William Wilkes and Alexander Weber.Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion. Please keep comments relevant and respectful. Comments may take up to an hour to appear on the site. You will receive an email if there is a reply to your comment, an update to a thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.