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Markets are churning furiously beneath the surface

The Economist
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2 min read
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⚡ Quantum Brief
The S&P 500 remains near record highs in early 2026 despite geopolitical turbulence, masking intense volatility beneath the surface as AI reshapes market dynamics. Software stocks have plunged by a third from 2025 peaks amid investor panic over AI’s disruptive potential, with legacy tech firms like IBM hit hardest—a 13% drop on February 23rd reflected vague but widespread concerns. AI’s rapid advancement is forcing a wholesale reassessment of business models, triggering sectoral rotations as investors bet on winners and abandon perceived losers in the emerging tech landscape. While headline indices appear stable, underlying market churn reveals deep uncertainty, with traders prioritizing AI-driven growth over traditional software and services amid shifting competitive threats. The disconnect between macro stability and micro volatility underscores how AI’s economic impact is outpacing visible market signals, creating hidden risks for unprepared investors.
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Finance & economics | ButtonwoodMarkets are churning furiously beneath the surfaceAI is prompting investors to reassess every business model under the sunShareIllustration: Satoshi Kambayashi Feb 22nd 2026|4 min readINVESTORs WAKING from a stupor that began on New Year’s Eve might question whether they had missed anything. For all the recent geopolitical drama, the S&P 500 share index of big American firms sits almost exactly where it did at the end of 2025: just shy of a record high. Beneath the surface, however, the churn in America’s financial markets has been furious. A panic about what artificial intelligence will do to business models has prompted software firms’ stock prices to tumble: they are a third below a recent peak last year. On February 23rd IBM’s slumped by 13%, owing to vague worries about what AI means for the tech veteran. Already have an account?Log in Continue with a free trial Get full access to our independent journalism for free Free trial Or create a free account to unlock just this article Create account Explore moreShareReuse this contentThe Economist TodayHandpicked stories, in your inboxA daily newsletter with the best of our journalismSign upYes, I agree to receive exclusive content, offers and updates to products and services from The Economist Group. I can change these preferences at any time.More from Finance & economicsAmerica’s trade chaos is just beginningTariff wrangling will stretch through the rest of Donald Trump’s term, and beyondProtectionists dislike trade and migration. And capital flows?The amount of money crossing borders has flattened off—but not because of capital controls Free ExchangeWhy Chinese people spend so much on food A 21st-century test of a 19th-century observationAmerica’s welfare state is more European than you think State-level policies are making up for stingy federal provisionA viral research note on AI gets its economics wrongToo much of a good thingThe AI productivity boom is not here (yet)Artificial intelligence is improving fast.

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