March Jobs Report: Hidden Pain Behind The Job Gains

Jack Bowman9.34K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(8min)CommentsSummaryThe latest U.S. jobs report shows headline employment gains, but underlying data reveal rising marginally attached workers and declining participation.Average weekly earnings have fallen slightly despite increased hours, with real wages pressured by persistent inflation above target.Alternative labor data confirm a stagnant market, highlighting small business hiring and solo entrepreneurship as notable trends.With labor market strength and inflation elevated, I expect the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% until at least September. Sviatlana Barchan/iStock via Getty Images The employment situation has been top-of-mind for most economics wonks that track data like U.S. non-farm payrolls—like myself. The BLS' NFP report from April 3rd came with great news, as they estimated 178,000 jobs wereThis article was written byJack Bowman9.34K FollowersFollowWriter | Investment Advisor | Economics Wonk | Top 5% on TipRanks | Long Signal, Short Noise | Author of The Macro Obsession, a weekly newsletter on current events and trends in finance, tech, and the real economy. My work focuses on my quest to uncover narrative trends before mainstream financial media, a process I've been describing as the hunt for information alpha. It is chart-heavy, macro-oriented, and data-driven.I invest across securities and asset classes. My focus has largely been on ETF investing, and I am known as a macro analyst, though I do cover stocks that I am personally trading or considering for my portfolio. These are typically technology and next-gen energy stocks or large caps with a juicy story.“Successful investing requires holding uncomfortably idiosyncratic positions.” — Howard Marks, paraphrasing David Swensen “History does not repeat, it instructs.” — Timothy Snyder, On TyrannyAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.