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Lingering Geopolitical Uncertainty Requires A Crude Rethink

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
Geopolitical tensions in early 2026, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are driving oil prices upward as prolonged uncertainty disrupts supply chains and investor confidence. ING’s revised forecasts now predict sustained higher oil prices due to persistent geopolitical risks, with analysts expecting prolonged market volatility through the year. Supply constraints worsen the outlook, as global production falls short of demand, further tightening the market and reinforcing upward price pressure. The report highlights that structural supply deficits—not just geopolitical shocks—are underpinning the rally, signaling deeper market imbalances than previously anticipated. Commodities strategists warn that without resolution in key conflict zones, oil markets will remain vulnerable to sudden price spikes and sustained elevated levels.
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ING Economic and Financial Analysis5.19K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(9min)CommentsSummary2026 has started with a significant amount of geopolitical risk, buoying oil prices.These risks are likely to persist for some time, suggesting prices will remain better supported.Fundamentally, the market is also not as well supplied as expected, adding further support.We have revised our oil price forecasts higher. DNY59/E+ via Getty Images By Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy Geopolitical risks and supply disruptions mean higher prices The oil market continues to deal with lingering uncertainty over how the situation between the US and Iran evolves inThis article was written byING Economic and Financial Analysis5.19K FollowersFollowFrom Trump to trade, FX to Brexit, ING’s global economists have it covered. Go to ING.com/THINK to stay a step ahead. We’re sorry we can’t reply to individuals' comments.Content disclaimer: The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. For our full disclaimer please click here.

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